What do space experts in industry and academia think will be the technical and policy challenges to overcome for a sustainable lunar outpost leveraging ISRU by 2040 to be realized? A survey using the Delphi method has just been completed to answer this question. The results were just released as a pre-proof in Acta Astronautica. Significant contributors in the fields of ISRU technologies, space architecture, power systems, and space exploration participated in the survey.
There was a group consensus that NASA’s Artemis mission returning humans to the Moon would be delayed by at least 2 years from the previous administration’s target of 2024 due to uncertainty in U.S. policy over the next few years. No surprise here. There was also agreement that ISRU processes could add significant power requirements on the order of 1 MW to a lunar base, and that photovoltaic systems were preferred over nuclear power sources because of a “…political distaste for space nuclear power systems”. Of particular note, the survey participants could not reach agreement on the impact that Covid-19 would have on space exploration.
