Diagram depicting the market sectors of the nascent in-space economy. Credits: Erik Kulu / Factories in Space
Erik Kulu, a Senior Systems Engineer in the satellite industry, has a passion for emerging technologies…especially those in the in-space manufacturing field. He’s created the largest public database of companies active in the emerging in-space economy. Called Factories in Space, it tracks companies engaged in microgravity services, space resources, in-space transport services, the economies of LEO, cislunar space, the Moon and much more.
Kulu provides an overview of commercial microgravity applications for both terrestrial and in-space use. His listing and analysis of potential business ventures provides a comprehensive summary of unique profitable commodities manufactured in microgravity, including fiber optics, medical products, exotic materials and many more.
Breakdown of the in-space manufacturing sector of the space economy. Credits: Erik Kulu / Factories in Space
“This is the missing piece to speed up development for the exciting Star Trek-like future. I believe in-space manufacturing will be the kickstarter and foundation.”
In a recent industry survey examining the commercial landscape of space resources in 2021, Kulu renders a statistical breakdown of the currently evolving development stages of in-space manufacturing companies, levels of funding by market sector, timing of company founding and geographical location of the main players. His analysis shows a marked increase in the formation of companies from 2016 – 2018 dropping off over the last 3 years.
Prominent founding peak of space resource companies in 2018 with drop at end of the last decade. Credits: Erik Kulu / Factories in Space
I asked Kulu about what he thought caused the downward taper because it seemed to have started before the COVID-19 pandemic, and so was probably unrelated. He agreed, and offers this explanation:
“Primarily, I think the decline is a mix of following:
There was a boom of some sorts, which has slowed down in terms of very new startups. Similar graphs [indicate the same trend] for nanosatellite, constellation and launcher companies. Funding boom is continuing though.
As many of those space fields do not have obvious markets, some potential new actors might be in wait mode, because they want to see what happens financially and technically to existing companies.
Startups could be in stealth mode or very early stage and as such I have not become aware of them yet. They will likely partially backfill.”
“While there was a decline, I forecast Starship and return to the Moon will kick off another wave in about 2-3 years.”
Kulu also tracks NewSpace commercial satellite constellations, small satellite rocket launchers and NewSpace funding options through his sister site NewSpace Index. But he doesn’t stop there. The world’s largest catalog of nanosatellites containing over 3200 nanosats and CubeSats can be found in his Nanosats database.
Learn more about how Erik Kulu got started tracking the in-space economy in this interview from earlier this year over on Filling Space. And be sure and tune in live to The Space Show next month when I cohost with David Livingston for his debut appearance, exact date to be determined. You can call the show and ask Erik questions directly. Check TSS Newsletter, updated weekly, for the show date once its set. This post will be updated when the schedule is finalized, so readers can check back here as well.
Conceptual illustration of a Habitat Autonomous Locomotive Expandable (HALE) mobile self sustaining habitat under propulsion near a planetary destination. Credits: unknown artist via Thomas Matula
Dr. Thomas Matula, Professor at Sul Ross State University Uvalde, Texas, has developed an economically based strategy for space settlement. His plan addresses the deficiencies in many proposed visions of human expansion beyond earth, namely the missing economic and legal aspects needed for sustainable settlement of the solar system. Matula discussed his approach with David Livingston on The Space Show September 14 and in a paper entitled An Economic Based Strategy for Human Expansion into the Solar System attached to the show blog.
Astrosettlement Development Strategy (ADS) can be boiled down into a four step economically based roadmap for space settlement which could be started with minimal private funding. Each step would achieve economic success before moving on to the next level. The four levels are Earth based research, industrialization of the Moon, developing and settling the solar system and interstellar migration.
In the first step of Earth based research, Matula suggests developing a subscription based online role playing computer game with the purpose of creating a virtual simulation of a space settlement to model the social and economic aspects of communities beyond Earth. SSP has been following similar efforts already underway by Moonwards. Further research in this phase would look into space agriculture to understand the types of plants and dietary needs of space settlers and improving the efficiency of crop growth paving the way for self sustaining habitats. Matula has penned a different paper along these lines called The Role of Space Habitat Research in Providing Solutions to the Multiple Environmental Crises on Earth, also attached to the Space Show Blog, which could have duel use applications in addressing environmental problems on our home planet. There are already efforts underway in this arena with Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) utilizing greenhouse automation through the Internet of Things leading to reduction of water needs and an increase in crop yields.
“Developing the technology to green the Solar System will also green the Earth for future generations”
Next on the roadmap is lunar industrialization. The focus of this step is to use robotics and in situ resource utilization to minimize the mass of materials lifted from Earth and to create lunar manufacturing capability in a cislunar economy that can be leveraged to build space based habitats for expansion into deep space.
Developing the solar system comes next. Once an economic foundation of industrialization of the Moon has been established, large mobile habitats can be built at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2. Called HALE, for Habitat Autonomous Locomotive Expandable, these are 1km wide self sustaining habitats with 1G artificial gravity capable of low energy transit throughout the solar system including out to the Kuiper Belt, where they can use the resources there to add to their size or build copies of themselves.
The final phase combines mobile free space settlement with advanced propulsion to develop the capability of expansion into the Oort cloud and on to the stars.
“…propulsion technology could advance to a point that would allow mobile space habitats designed for the Oort Cloud to be transformed into the first generational starships.”
Conceptual illustration looking up the length of a Moon Town residential habitat built in a trench going down the crater wall. Plants cover its roof, walls, and foundation. Credits: Kim Holder, CC-BY 4.0. NOTE: all images are similarly credited
SSP has posted about Moonwards in the past. Kim Holder, creator of the realistic virtual lunar colony online game was recently interviewed on Hotel Mars by John Bachleor of CBS Eye on World and David Livingston of The Space Show. Kim’s website is starting to mature to a point where I thought it was time to get an update and a deeper dive into her vision of our future living on the Moon. I caught up with Kim last week via email.
SSP: Thanks for taking the time to collaborate on this post Kim. You’ve said that accurately depicting and roleplaying the activities of living on the Moon in a colony called Moon Town built by, and shared by, the players will help show the world the benefits of space development and a positive future. Why do you think a role-playing online game is the best vehicle to accomplish this vision?
KH: Because interacting over time with a detailed simulation allows people to absorb what it means. It allows people to pick up knowledge about space development as they play. That’s a kind of learning that sticks. And the more players expand the vision, creating an ever cooler place with more things to see and do, the more they will feel a connection with that vision. They will naturally think about it more, talk about it more, pass on things about it to their friends and family. The kinds of dialogues they are able to have about it will gain depth and breadth, the more they work on it and see how others have worked on it.
“We need to understand what’s coming and make sure we do this right.”
It’s long been said that simulations of this kind will become a major means of education and research once the software and hardware to make them matures. Well, we’re arriving at that day. It’s a question of properly designing them now, to best serve our needs. I think space development is clearly the best choice of theme for the first such simulated environment, and a game based on creation and collaboration is the best design paradigm for it. I’d say there is no issue in the world so misunderstood and undervalued. We need to understand what’s coming and make sure we do this right. Otherwise it will take longer to see the massive benefits, and there are lots of things that could go really wrong.
Depiction of an android accompanying a resident in the shared kitchen, dining area, and spa facility of a neighborhood in Moon Town
SSP: You’ve done a lot of research to make the future technology of Moonwards scientifically accurate to give users a realistic prediction of what it will be like to live and work in space. Why is this important?
KH: There’s lots of places out there where people can enjoy a space fantasy, and I’m a fan of a bunch of them. But to bring home why it’s important to devote big resources to space development, we have to leave no doubt that the benefits we portray will really happen once enough space infrastructure exists. I’ve generally been conservative about what’s portrayed so there’s no gap where someone could say it’s not gonna happen because this or that is fanciful. This is of course difficult because there’s so much we don’t know.
It’s the medical stuff that’s especially hard to account for, as you well know, John. In order for people to enjoy the game it has to portray a beautiful, exciting place. If it doesn’t do that nobody will be interested and it won’t achieve anything. I decided not to build the town in a lava tube, the place widely recognized as the safest, easiest place to build at scale on the moon. The most important reason I chose a large, young crater instead was to present that beautiful, exciting place. However huge a cavern is – and lava tubes on the moon could be hundreds of meters wide and thousands long, in theory – I didn’t feel it could be filled with a city nearly as attractive as one in a crater. No matter that it gives complete protection from radiation and dust, and it’s relatively easy to pressurize the entire thing. Once we can, I’m pretty sure we’ll make big fancy cities in craters or mountains, not tunnels. We’ll do what it takes to create a healthy place to live that has the sunshine and big outdoor views humans have evolved with. I’ve had arguments with people about that but I stick to it. It gives me an opportunity to discuss what systems would be needed and how they could be made on the moon. It gives people a relatable way to learn about such things, and to ponder both the vast scale of this undertaking, and that it’s entirely feasible.
“This isn’t about exploring space. This is about changing human existence. We have to demonstrate this can really be done.”
As people play this game, I want real questions to well up in them for the game world to properly answer. If you want people to really question whether this kind of vast industry and construction is both possible and desirable in space, a place of beauty and wonder has to instill those questions. Then, they must be answered thoroughly with the best science we have. Moonwards isn’t shy about scale, we show things that couldn’t be built without a robotic workforce rivaling the human workforce that built the Panama Canal. When someone is convinced something like that can really be made, that person becomes a true convert. This isn’t about exploring space. This is about changing human existence. We have to demonstrate this can really be done.
Image of a Moon Town resident outside in a capsule spacesuit, on the roof of the first park, with its giant window. The main park is in the distance, its giant stone arches protecting the space from radiation but letting in lots of sun
SSP: Moonwards is open source to encourage collaboration among “Makers” to build out the community of Moon Town. Who are these Makers and what qualifications do they need to participate?
KH: The communities we’ll be wooing directly will be those of space science and industry, and amateur game developers. We need a few more things done before actively bringing in a select few from those communities. The first set of Makers will advise us on design and test our collaboration tools. They’ll use those tools to add things to the game world once we’ve got the version that makes the process a pleasure. Beyond that point, the task is to grow a culture of Makers who decide themselves how the town develops. We just support that process – giving them more and better tools, adding new game destinations for them to work on (eventually starting with an O’Neill cylinder once Moonwards is established), helping polish what they make, and building a rapport with them so together we make the best vision of the future we can.
“Makers develop the major parts of the town, all the things that really require sound engineering.”
So, while initially we’ll be seeking out a small group of people with qualifications that leave no doubt they know how to design this simulation properly, once that group takes the lead in creating content, it will be their opinion of submissions that determines who joins the Maker ranks. We’ll set up the means for anyone to submit proposed content. A critique process will assist with refinements. If your submission meets standards, it’ll be approved and you become a Maker, with all the privileges that go with that. Anyone who does their homework and learns from feedback can acquire that status.
You see, Makers develop the major parts of the town, all the things that really require sound engineering. All such things need good review before being included, and also an active community that integrates new stuff into the whole, considering the overall design and needs of the town. There will be plenty of things that are the ordinary day to day parts of a living town that any player can create and add, and that’s just up to them, and anyone else who shares a space with them. They can make their own home and its contents, things for their neighborhood, shops and markets, even things like animals, robots, and human characters. Makers are a different deal. They expand the town itself and have a big voice in new cities. where to locate them, and how to portray them.
View from outside the ecosystem research lab, showing the ilmenite reactors producing iron and oxygen in the distance. Two robotic rovers are visible center right.
SSP: In the (hopefully near) future when the Full Town Life is realized, visitors will be able to cooperate using a Collaboration App to develop ideas and projects in a workshop space with a suite of 3D modeling tools. How do you envision this functionality furthering space development? Can you give some examples of how it would be used?
KH: (Rubs hands.) Well, I talked above about how Makers will be a culture of informed people able to make good realistic designs for space. So, let’s say a few of them are playing with ideas for systems to transport ore from mines to processing reactors. We’ll start with trucks designed for that. Maybe they wonder if conveyor belts are better for production beyond a certain scale. They draft something for that, and once they are done for the day, the work-in-progress is on display in the studio section of the main habitats. Someone passing by looks at it and realizes they haven’t accounted for the dust that will be flying around in much greater quantities in mining areas. They attach a note about it to the gears that are too exposed, perhaps including a quick 3D sketch of a protective casing, or a link to a library item that could be adapted for a fix. Someone else passes by, thinks it over, and leaves a note with a calculation of what production level would justify this and whether it makes sense. A third person takes a look, and adds a comment to the note about production levels concerning how ore quality could impact the calculation.
“…nothing stops real researchers from using our code and assets to help create simulations adequate for real engineering modeling.”
By the time the original team comes back to work on it some more, someone has proposed an alternate solution using a sort of cable car system with movable posts, and begun working on it in a nearby area of the studio. Someone’s suggested different kinds of buckets used to get the ore from the trench or shaft to the conveyor belt that then clip onto the belt and are taken away. They ask to officially join the team. Someone has provided a miniature map of the main mining zones for use in mocking up the routes for the conveyor belts so they can be optimized, and attached it to the project.
These things can all happen because people actually walk past other people’s work in the game. When they do, they are already in an environment that allows them to play around with the model and attach all sorts of things to it, without changing the version the team behind it is working on. Good design will create the best possible environment for collaboration we’ve ever had.
How much of that will transfer directly to the real world is impossible to say. We have hopes that with growth the quality and capabilities of the simulation aspect of the game will be so high, things created this way will genuinely shape real world designs. This is one of the reasons for the main project to be open source – that way nothing stops real researchers from using our code and assets to help create simulations adequate for real engineering modeling. Then, that can be contributed back to Moonwards and we can adapt it so the game is a better simulation. It can become a virtuous cycle.
Aside from whether real technology might actually be drafted in Moonwards, definitely people will pick up how to engineer by playing. There is huge potential for mentorship, training in creative problem solving, and evaluation of concepts in an environment that makes communicating complex ideas so much easier.
SSP: Eventually, there will be the capability of hosting events such as concerts, live plays, gallery displays, special interviews or discussions. Why would this be an attractive place for visitors to experience events like these?
KH: The kinds of events that I imagine being really successful will draw on the environment, and the nature of the community. Let’s focus on large events, on a scale that requires high bandwidth to work. It’ll take a while to create that capability, but it’s the part that’s really fun.
“With amazing realism quickly becoming possible even in real time 3D rendering, … such events could be fantastic.”
If you go to a concert or a play, the avatars of the audience could be scaled down to be an inch tall, and be free to fly around a space half a meter high by 10 meters wide by 3 deep, arching around the front of the stage just a meter from the performers. You could see the avatars of the viewers closest to you, and anyone you came with, but those farther away could appear just as little lights. The performers could jazz up the event by switching at will between all kinds of avatars, and adding anything they want to the environment. With amazing realism quickly becoming possible even in real time 3D rendering, and live recording of real people in full 3D also quickly maturing, such events could be fantastic.
Of course, Moonwards is a tiny project compared to other ventures pushing into 3D platforms. But we have two advantages that could be a big deal. First, we are the first venture of this kind to be principally open source. Add-ons can be proprietary (some of ours will be, as will the server code), but the main bulk of the project will remain open source. This is attractive to people wishing to experiment with the medium, or who wish to be sure their personal data isn’t being exploited, or who would rather the Metaverse (aka the 3D web) doesn’t grow up to be dominated by a few giant companies, like social media is. It’s possible that could be a decisive factor in who grows over the next decade.
Second, our tribe is those who love space and futurism. If you want to hang out at events with our kind of people, then come to our events. Nobody else will offer a lecture about the formation of Lalande Crater in which the audience is inside a simulation of the impact event.
SSP: In May Moonwards launched a contest to begin upgrades to the virtual infrastructure of Moon Town. Called “Create Lunar Infrastructure in Moonwards Baby!” or CLIMB!, the initiative was intended to draw in Makers to bring the game alive, with proposals submitted over the summer to compete for prizes. How is the contest going?
KH: OK, part of me is tempted to skip this, but another part thinks it’s better to answer. Making this game has been hard up to now. Really, it’s going a lot better than it was – a lot – and we’ve already gotten farther along than most startup video game ventures get at this point. Still, we are a small team on a shoestring budget who go through many unexpected turns. Other tasks meant we were obliged to launch the contest later than we should have, with less resources than we’d have liked. Then an opportunity appeared to enter a business plan contest run by the National Space Society, taking place during the same time as CLIMB!. (Check it out – https://spacebizplan.nss.org/details/). That meant the person working on the contest – me – instead turned full time to writing the business plan. That includes moving up some revisions to the layout of Moon Town so they can be shown off in the plan.
We made some good contacts during the brief time we were actively promoting CLIMB!, but it seems clear there won’t be submissions this year. We’ll take what we’ve learned and make a bigger, better contest next year. We feel having regular contests for new content of various kinds will really help bring in Makers and spread the word.
SSP: Much of the laborious tasks in Moon Town are done by robots. What will the inhabitants do there and what will be the economic benefits and incentives for average people to want to migrate there permanently?
“The answer to what people will do there is, what they are passionate about.”
KH: Ah the future – so much to think about. To scale up industry and transport in the Earth-moon system to the point where some goods from the moon can be sold for a profit on Earth, you really have to go all out with automation. You have to make maximum use of the fact the moon has no biosphere to harm, and turn all labor over to robots that can work in really dangerous environments. Once you manage to have robots make more robots using materials on the moon, and energy beamed from space solar power arrays powers the factories and transport, prices will drop and drop until you can compete with industry on Earth. Ok, if you buy that, then Moon Town is going to be the robot Mecca of the future. Robots don’t just do most of the laborious tasks, they do them all. Running a closed ecosystem on a world so hostile an unprotected person would die in less than a minute requires great care. People just plain aren’t trusted to always do everything important right. Robots do all that. The answer to what people will do there is, what they are passionate about.
I mean, it isn’t like robots won’t have taken most jobs on Earth by that time too. We’re going to have to decide how to assign value to things in a way that rewards merit in a world like that. What can humans do that even intelligent robots can’t? Things that have great emotional value to other humans. Things that help us define who we are. Arts. Sports. Caregiving. Spirituality. Exploration.
Now, that isn’t necessarily to say that a lot of average people will migrate permanently. At least, not to the town we are portraying first. It’s not a huge place, there is a lot a person would have to give up to live there. [See next question]. The city that comes after it would be better suited to welcome average people. The human population of Moon Town will be researchers and top engineers who benefit from being able to take a close look at their work on-site, artists, athletes, and a few administrators. Moon Town plans to embed depictions of their lives as stories woven into the world. Oh, also people with major disabilities who are taking advantage of how Moon Town permits body alteration on a level not legal on Earth, especially advantageous in a controlled, low gravity environment. And some people taking a shot at immortality. Literally.
SSP: Its been said that a space settlement will not be completely self-supporting and independent of Earth until children can be born and raised there. Moonwards deals with human health in the Moon’s 1/6 gravity environment through the use of centrifuges to dose inhabitants for 3 hours a day of 1G conditioning to mitigate the known deleterious effects of lower gravity to human health. But there appears to be no mention of children in Moonwards culture. Given Moonward’s rigorous scientific accuracy, is the lack of children because of our knowledge gaps with respect to the gravity prescription? Will this evolve over time as the Moonwards community is informed by advances in space medicine?
KH: Yes, it’s because of the knowledge gaps. It’s definitely completely unclear whether it’s possible to bear and raise healthy children on the moon. We also can’t anticipate in any way how we might work around that, if it isn’t possible. I’ll be comfortable depicting children in the O’Neill cylinder in orbit. We’ll get to that simulation in due course. With that option sitting there, why get into how to do it on the moon?
(PS – 3 hours a day is of course a total guess and was chosen to be relatively easy to work into gameplay. Media in the game will explain things like this.)
SSP: Speaking of centrifuges for human health in low gravity environments, your design of the health “Carousel” assumes a radius of 16 meters. This relatively small size, as you have acknowledged, could lead to severe Coriolis effects potentially resulting in severe disorientation and nausea. Have you considered a larger centrifuge design such as the one proposed by Gregory Dorais with a radius of 75 meters which could reduce the impact of Coriolis effects, and since Moonwards is depicted far enough in the future that this type of technology could be achievable?
KH: To be fair, the centrifuge portrayed right now is one of the first, in a hab that can’t accommodate anything bigger. The bet is that people who use the apparatus regularly adapt to the way it affects the inner ear, and then are able to use it without issue. This is the theory Al Globus puts forth, with a decent amount of evidence to back it up, based on experiments with centrifuges over the years. But as the town expands, centrifuges are made bigger and bigger.
I’m currently planning a thorough revisit to the town’s design. We are at a juncture in development where it makes sense to change and refine the models of the town, and I intend to take that pretty far. This time, the first habs built will be upright cylinders with rounded ends such that it’s possible to ride a bike around the walls so fast that you are pressed towards the wall with a force of one gravity. Nod of the hat to Jeff Greason for pointing that out. Then the first centrifuge will go in, not sure of the radius but at a guess, 40 meters. The bigger habs will be able to accommodate ones much larger still. But those will be in the hands of the Makers. I’m just making the first few things, and giving ample space for others to expand.
SSP: Currently, space exploration and development is primarily funded by government entities and is regulated by the Outer Space Treaty. As such, these activities are by nature geo-political. You’ve chosen not to deal with these challenges that will inevitably shape our future in space, and leap frogged ahead with the assumption that those issues have been solved. Is the hope that people will be so attracted to the abundant resources and opportunities that Moonwards has to offer, that they will overcome their differences and come together to make it happen?
“Let’s focus on getting across how much better life will be if we pull this off. That’s what matters.”
KH: Heck, I don’t just assume they’ve been solved. I assume the very best decisions have been made along the whole journey, to lead to the very best outcome for space development.
The exercise here is to explore our potential. It’s also important to see how this could go wrong, but as soon as you get into that, you fail to communicate the thing that matters most. This isn’t another chapter in geopolitical expansion, akin to the colonial era. This goes right off the map of anything humanity has ever experienced. Let’s focus on getting across how much better life will be if we pull this off. That’s what matters.
Visit Moonwards to download the game free of charge and start collaborating. Although somewhat dated, check out Kim’s appearance with Dr. Livingston, Haym Benaroya and myself on the Moonwards Panel at the 2017 Icarus Interstellar Starship Congress in Monterey, California.
Conceptual illustration of a Virtus Solis satellite array beaming power to central California (not to scale). Credits: Virtus Solis Technologies. NOTE: all images in this post are credited to Virtus Solis Technologies
Ever since I was in high school space solar power has been the holy grail of space advocates. I even wrote a report on the topic based on Peter Glaser’s vision in my high school physics class before Gerard K. O’Neill popularized the concept in The High Frontier leveraging it as the economic engine behind orbiting space settlements. But the technology was far from mature back then, and O’Neill knew back in 1976 the other main reason why after all these years space solar power has not been realized:
“If satellite solar power is an alternative as attractive as this discussion indicates, the question is, why is it not being supported and pushed in vigorous way? The answer can be summarized in one phrase: lift costs.” – Gerard K. O’Neill, The High Frontier
John Bucknell, CEO and Founder of Virtus Solis, the company behind the first design to cost space solar power system (SSPS), believes that recent technological advances, not the least of which are plummeting launch costs, will change all that. He claims that his approach will be able to undercut fossil fuel power plants on price. He recently appeared on The Space Show (TSS) with Dr. David Livingston discussing his new venture. SSP reached out to him for an exclusive interview and a deep dive on his approach, the market for space solar power and its impact on space development.
SSP: Technological advancements of all the elements of a space solar power system have gradually matured over the last few decades such that size, mass and costs have been reduced to the point where there are now experiments in space to demonstrate feasibility. For example, SSP has been following the first test of the Naval Research Laboratory’s Photovoltaic Radio-frequency Antenna Module (PRAM) aboard the Air Force’s X37 Orbital test vehicle. Caltech’s Space-based Solar Power Project (SSPP) has been working on a tile configuration that combines the photovoltaic (PV) solar power collection, conversion to radio frequency power, and transmission through antennas in a compact module. According to your write-up in Next Big Future on a talk given to the Power Satellite Economics Group by the SSPP project manager Dr. Rich Madonna, they plan a flight demonstration of the tile configuration this December. The Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Solar Power Incremental Demonstrations and Research (SSPIDR) project also plans a flight demonstration later this year with an as yet unannounced configuration. Which configuration of this critical element (PRAM or tile) do you think is the most cost effective and can you say if your system will be using one of these two configurations or some other alternative?
Bucknell: There is a lot of merit to the tile configuration as it shares much of it’s manufacturing process with existing printed circuit board (PCB) construction techniques. The PRAM itself is a version of the tile, but as it was Dr. Paul Jaffe’s doctoral dissertation prototype (from 2013) it did not use PCB techniques and should not be considered an intended SSPS architecture. Details of Caltech’s latest design aren’t released, but it appears they intend to deploy a flexible membrane version of the tile to allow automated deployment. Similar story with SSPIDR. As space solar power is a manufacturing play as much as anything, you would choose known large scale manufacturing techniques as your basis for scaling if you intend earth-based manufacturing – which we do. So yes, we are planning a version of the tile configuration.
SSP: You’ve said that the TRL levels of most of the elements of an SSPS are fairly mature but that the wireless power transmission of a full up phased array antenna from space to Earth is at TRL 5-6. The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) plans a prototype flight as the next phase of the SSPIDR project with demonstration of wireless power transmission from LEO to Earth in 2023. What is your timeline for launching a demo and will it beat the Air Force?
Bucknell: Our timescales are similar for a demonstrator, but I suspect the objectives of a military-focused solution would be different than ours. We would plan a LEO technology demonstrator meeting most of the performance metrics required for a MEO commercial deployment.
SSP: Your solution is composed of mass produced, factory-built components including satellites that will be launched repeatedly as needed to build out orbital arrays. Will multiple satellites be launched in one payload or will each module be launched on its own? What is the mass upper limit of each payload and how many launches are needed for the entire system?
Bucknell: We intend a modular solution, such that very few variants are required for all missions. A good performance metric for a SSP satellite would be W/kg – and we believe we can approach 500 W/kg for our satellites (Caltech has demonstrated over 1000 W/kg for their solution). With known launchers and their payloads a 100MW system would take three launches of a Starship, with less capable launchers requiring many more. Since launch cost is inversely related to payload mass, we expect Starship to be the least expensive option although having a competitive launch landscape will help that aspect of the economics with forthcoming launchers from Relativity Space, Astra and Rocket Lab being possibilities.
SSP: The way you have described the Virtus Solis system, it sounds like once your elements are in orbit, additional steps are needed to coordinate them into a functional collector/phased array. Presumably, this requires some sort of on-orbit assembly or automated in-space maneuvering of the modules into the final configuration. I know you are in stealth mode at this point, but can you reveal any details about how the system all comes together?
Bucknell: An on-orbit robotic assembly step is necessary, although the robotic sophistication required is intentionally very low.
SSP: Your system is composed of a constellation of collection/transmitter units placed in multiple elliptical Molniya sun-synchronous orbits with perigee 800-km, apogee 35,000-km and high inclination (e.g. > 60 degrees). I understand this allows the PV collectors to always face the sun while the microwave array can transmit to the target area without the need for physical steering, which simplifies the design of the spacecraft. Upon launch, will the elements be placed in this orbit right away or will they be “assembled” in LEO and then moved to the destination orbit. Do the individual elements or each system assembly as a whole have on-board propulsion?
Bucknell: The concept of operations is array assembly in final orbit, mostly to avoid debris raising from lower orbits.
Schematic illustration of a three-array Virtus Solis constellation in Molniya orbits serving Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and a two-array constellation serving the Southern Hemisphere of Luna
SSP: The primary objective of the AFRL SSPIDR project is delivery of power to forward deployed expeditionary forces on Earth which would assure energy supply with reduced risk and lower logistical costs. It sounds like your system would not work for this application given the need for 2-km diameter rectenna. Could this potential market be a point of entry for your system if it were scaled down or reconfigured in some way?
Bucknell: Wireless Power Transmission (WPT) at orbital to surface distances suffer from diffraction limits, which is true for optics of all kinds. It is not physically possible to place all the power on a small receiver, and therefore the military will likely accept that constraint. As a commercial enterprise, we could not afford to not collect the expensively-acquired and transmitted energy to the ground station. There are also health and safety considerations for higher intensity WPT systems – ours cannot exceed the intensity of sunlight for example, and therefore is not weaponizable.
SSP: You said on TSS that your strategy would, at least initially, bypass utilities in favor of independent power producers. What criteria is required to qualify your system for adoption by these organizations? You mentioned you have already started discussions with one such group. Can you provide any further details about how they would incorporate an SSPS into their existing assets?
Bucknell: One of the key features of space solar power is on-demand dispatchability. Grid-tied space solar power generation has the benefit of being able to bid into existing grids when generation is needed and task the asset to other sites when demand is low. This all assumes that penetration will be gradual, but some potential customers might desire baseload capacity in which case there is not as much need for dispatchability. Each customer’s optimal generation profile is likely to be unique so it is preferable to attempt to match that with a flexible system.
Conceptual illustration of a 1GW Virtus Solis rectenna array next to Topaz Solar Farm of 550MW capacity in San Luis Obispo County, California
SSP: Other companies have alternative SSPS designs planned for this market. For example, SPS – ALPHA by Solar Space Technologies in Australia and CASSIOPeiA by International Electric Company in theUK. How does Virtus Solis differentiate itself from the competition?
Bucknell: From a product perspective, we are able to provide baseload capacity at far lower cost. Also, we intentionally selected orbits to not only reduce costs but to induce sharing of the orbital assets across the globe such that this is not a solution just for one country or region.
SSP: How big is the likely commercial market for your product/services going to be by the time you are ready to start commercial operations? Can you share some of your assumptions and how they are derived?
Bucknell: Recent data indicates that electrical generation infrastructure worldwide is about $1.5T annually. If you add fossil fuel prospecting, it is $3.5T. Total worldwide generation market size is about $8T. All of this is derived from BP’s “Statistical Review of World Energy – June 2018” and the report from the International Energy Agency “World Energy Investment 2018”
SSP: For your company to start operations, what total funding will be required, and will it come from a combination of government and private sources, or will you be securing funding only from private investors?
Bucknell: As a startup, especially in hardware, funding comes from where you can get it. To date no governmental funding opportunities have matched our technology, but that might change. Our early raise has been from angel investors and venture capital firms. Over the course of the research and development efforts, we expect demand for capital will be below $100M over the next several years but accurately forecasting the future is challenging. We would note this level of required investment is far below our competition.
SSP: For hiring your management team, since this business is not mature, what analogous industries would you be looking at to recruit top talent?
Bucknell: Everything in our systems exist today elsewhere. The wireless data industry (5G for example) has the tools and experience for developing radio frequency antennas and associated broadcast hardware. The automotive industry has extensive experience with manufacturing electronics at low cost in high volumes, including power and control electronics. Controls software engineering is a large field in aerospace and automotive, but in a large distributed system like ours the controls software will extend far beyond guidance, navigation and control (GNC).
SSP: O’Neill envisioned the production of SSPSs as the market driver for space settlements, in addition to replication of more space colonies. This approach seems to have gathered less steam over the years as economics, technological improvements, and safety concerns have taken people out of the equation to build SSPSs in space. In a recent article in the German online publication 1E9 Magazine you talked about SSPSs being useful for settlements on the Moon and Mars. What role do you see them playing in free space settlements and could they still help realize O’Neill’s vision?
Bucknell: We stand at a cross-roads for in-space infrastructure. For the first time access to space costs look to be low enough to make viable commercial reasons to deploy large amounts of infrastructure into cislunar space and beyond. To date the infrastructure beyond earth observation and telecom has been deployed to mostly satisfy nation-state needs for science unable to be performed anywhere else as well as exploration missions (also a form of science). However, there has to be a strong pull/demand to spur the construction of access to space hardware (heavy lift rockets) that consequently lowers the cost further through economies of scale. As I described in my Space Show interview there are only a few commercial in-space businesses that are viable with today’s launch costs. We have had telecom for a long time, followed closely by military and then commercial earth observation. Now we have a large constellation of “internet of space”. Even with those applications, there is not a large pull to scale reusable launch vehicle production – as reusability is counter-productive for economies of scale. A large, self-supporting in-space infrastructure would be needed to bootstrap launch production sufficiently to self-fulfil low cost access to space – Space Solar Power is that infrastructure. Space tourism, asteroid mining and others do not have scale nor potential lofted mass to scale the launch market adequately. In that way, O’Neill’s vision is right – and the follow-on markets can leverage the largely paid-for launch infrastructure to make themselves viable. Space solar power will be the enabler for humanity to live and work off-Earth, and Virtus Solis is leading the way.
If humanity is to ever move off Earth, clearly we will need to be able to have children wherever we establish long term settlements. But, as humans have evolved over millions of years in Earth’s gravitational field, normal gestation may not be possible on the Moon or Mars. This is probably the most important physiological question to be answered before outposts are permanently occupied on these worlds. We can shield people from radiation, we can recycle wastes and use ISRU to replenish consumables for life support. But we may find that artificial gravity either in free space rotating habitats or on planetary surface settlements is required for settlers to have healthy children. In fact, when I asked Dr. Shawna Pandya, a physician and expert in space medicine about it on The Space Show, she said “…that is the million dollar question”.
Numerous studies have shown the deleterious effects of long term microgravity on human health. So we know that humans will need some level of gravity for sustainable occupation. But what level is enough to stave off the effects of lower gravity on human health and what about reproduction under these conditions? Plus, there is the problem of how to run ethical clinical studies to answer these questions? The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has started research in this area by studying mice under variable gravity conditions aboard their Kibo module on the International Space Station using a Multiple Artificial-gravity Research System (MARS). Results of this first ever long term space based mouse habitation study with artificial gravity were published in a paper called Development of new experimental platform ‘MARS’—Multiple Artificial-gravity Research System—to elucidate the impacts of micro/partial gravity on mice in Nature back in 2017. The authors* of the paper found that significant decreases in bone density and muscle mass of the mice reared under microgravity conditions were evident when compared to a cohort raised under 1G indicating that artificial gravity simulating the surface of the Earth may prevent negative health effects of microgravity in space. The next obvious step was to test the mice in 1/6 G simulating conditions on the Moon. This experiment was ran in 2019 but the results have not yet been published. SSP has reached out to JAXA with an inquiry on when we can expect a report. This post will be amended with an update if and when an answer is received.
Reproduction of mice or other mammals has not been studied in space under variable gravity conditions. The problem screams out for a dedicated space based artificial gravity facility such as the Space Studies Institute’s G-Lab and others (e.g. Joe Carroll’s Partial Gravity Test Facility ). Even if such a laboratory existed, how would ethical clinical studies on higher mammal animal models to simulate human physiology during pregnancy be carried out? Answering this question will come first before the million dollar one.
June 2, 2023 Update: JAXA finally released the results of their 2019 study on mice subjected to 1/6 G partial gravity in a paper in Nature in April. There is good news and not-so-good news. The good news is that 1/6 G partial gravity prevents muscle atrophy in mice. The downside is that this level of artificial gravity cannot prevent changes in muscle fiber (myofiber) and gene modification induced by microgravity. There appears to be a threshold between 1/6G and Earth-normal gravity, yet to be determined, for skeletal muscle adaptation.
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* Authors of Development of new experimental platform ‘MARS’—Multiple Artificial-gravity Research System—to elucidate the impacts of micro/partial gravity on mice: Dai Shiba, Hiroyasu Mizuno, Akane Yumoto, Michihiko Shimomura, Hiroe Kobayashi, Hironobu Morita1, Miki Shimbo, Michito Hamada, Takashi Kudo, Masahiro Shinohara, Hiroshi Asahara, Masaki Shirakawa and Satoru Takahash
Image of Biosphere 2, a research facility to support the development of computer models that simulate the biological, physical and chemical processes to predict ecosystem response to environmental change. Credits: Biosphere 2 / University of Arizona
Once cheap access to space is realized, probably the most important technological challenge for permanent space settlements behind radiation protection and artificial gravity is a robust environmental control and life support system (ECLSS). Such a system needs to be reliably stable over long duration space missions, and eventually will need to demonstrate closure for permanent outposts on the Moon, Mars or in free space. In his thesis for a Master of Science Degree in Space Studies, Curt Holmer defines the stability of the complex web of interactions between biological, physical and chemical processes in an ECLSS and examines the early warning signs of critical transitions between systems so that appropriate mitigations can be taken before catastrophic failure occurs.
Holmer mathematically modeled the stability of an ECLSS as it is linked to the degree of closure and the complexity of the ecosystem and then validated it against actual results as demonstrated by NASA’s Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP), the first autonomous ECLSS chamber study designed by NASA to evaluate regenerative life support systems with human crews. The research concluded that current computer simulations are now capable of modeling real world experiments while duplicating actual results, but refinement of the models is key for continuous iteration and innovation of designs of ECLSS toward safe and permanent space habitats.
This research will be critical for establishing space settlements especially with respect to how much consumables are needed as “buffers” in a closed, or semi-closed life support system, when the model’s metrics indicate they are needed to mitigate instabilities. Such instabilities were encountered during the first test runs of Biosphere 2 in the early 1990s.
As SpaceX races to build a colony on Mars, they will need this type of tool to help plan the life support system. Holmer believes that completely closed life support systems for relatively large long term settlements are at least 15 to 20 years away. That means that SpaceX will need to resupply materials and consumables due to losses in their initial outpost who’s life support system in all probability will not be completely closed during the early phases of the project over the next decade. Even SpaceX cannot reduce launch costs low enough to make long term resupply economically viable. They will eventually want to drive toward a fully self sustaining ECLSS. That said, depending on how the company funds its initiatives and sets up it’s supply chains, they may not need a completely closed system for quite some time.
Of course there are sources of many of the consumables on Mars that could support a colony but not all the elements critical for ecosystems, such as nitrogen, are abundant there. There are sources of some consumables outside the Earth’s gravity well which could lower transportation costs and extend the timeline needed for complete closure. SSP covered the SHEPHERD asteroid retrieval concept in which icy planetesimals, some containing nitrogen and other volatiles needed for life support, could be harvested from the asteroid belt and transported to Mars as a supply of consumables for surface operations. TransAstra Corporation is already working on their Asteroid Provided In-situ Supplies family of flight systems that could help build the infrastructure needed for this element of the ecosystem. It may be a race between development of the competing technologies of a self-sustaining ECLSS vs. practical asteroid mining. The bigger question is if humans can thrive long term on the surface of Mars under .38G gravity. In the next century, O’Neill type colonies, perhaps near a rich source of nitrogen such as Ceres, may be the answer to where safe, long term space settlements with robust ECLSS habitats under 1G will be located.
Curt Holmer appeared recently on the The Space Show discussing his research. I called the show and asked if he had used his modeling to analyze the stability of ecosystems sized for an O’Neill-type colony. He said he had only studied habitats up to the size of the International Space Station, but that it was theoretically possible to analyze this larger ecosystem. He said he would like to pursue further studies of this nature in the future.
Moonwards is a technically realistic simulation of a settlement on the Moon called Moontown. It’s a 3d virtual environment you can explore on your own, or you can interact with others in the online experience. You can chat with other people there via your respective avatars touring the facility. You can learn about how all the structures were built and the machines that maintain the settlement by opening cards attached to objects, playing audio clips, watching slide shows, or activating animated presentations. Right now it is just a demo, but when completed, you will be able to build things, create characters, add 3d models to the library, create presentations, play games inside the town, hold or attend events and much more. Its all open source to encourage collaboration.
Visit Moonwards and click on “download” to get a free demo today. You can help realize this exciting vision of the humanity’s future by visiting and cooperating to build out this virtual settlement on the Moon.
Moonwards creator Kim Holder and I discussed the new demo with Dr. Space himself, David Livingston on The Space Show last Sunday. Checkout a podcast of the show at here.
The Space Show – the nation’s first talk radio show focusing on increasing space commerce, advancing space science and economic development, facilitating our move to a space-faring economy which will benefit everyone on Earth – needs your help. The Space Show is hosted by Dr. David Livingston, who completed his doctoral dissertation in 2001 on the commercialization and expansion of space development. Take a moment to visit The Space Show website and read Dr. Livingston’s end of year message. Please give generously to ensure this valuable resource continues to promote, encourage, and support future global economic opportunities, scientific discoveries, and medical advances for all humankind through peaceful and cooperative ventures in outer space.
The Caelus Foundation, a nonprofit who’s mission is to advocate for broad participation in the space domain and to engage and empower people around the world to build a space-centric community through their decisions and actions, has just published a research paper providing an understanding of common terms important for achieving positive benefits from commercial space activities, and in establishing supportive and appropriate regulatory frameworks.
The authors summarize their findings with this conclusion: “This research has revealed that there are significant challenges with communicating the value of space enterprises, given the common terminology used today. This is largely due to the root word for the industry, ‘space,’ being a term that does not naturally convey any specific type of value. Terms such as ‘commercial space’ and ‘newspace’ attempt to compensate for this issue. Yet, as our interviews showed, the lack of clear and universal understanding of these words creates new challenges, while not fully addressing the obstacle of communicating the idea of space as a domain of economic and strategic value.”
On September 19th, Caelus participated in the Sino-US Space Commercialization Perspectives Workshop co-hosted by the Secure World Foundation and the Chinese Society of Astronautics. The purpose of the workshop was to create a dialogue “… to share and understand perspectives from both US and Chinese stakeholders on how space commercialization is happening in both countries, and what can be done to increase transparency between both commercial contexts.” A full debrief is being prepared in partnership with Secure World and will be made available to the public when completed in the near future.
Rob Ronci, Caelus Executive Director and co-author of the research paper appeared on The Space Show November 22 hosted by Dr. David Livingston on which I called in and discussed the above topics with him. You can listen to the show by downloading the recording on the The Space Show website.
Artist’s impression of an inflatable habitat on the Moon. Credits / NASA, Gary Kitmacher
Haym Benroya, Distinguished Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Rutgers University and author of Turning Dust to Gold, Building a Future on the Moon and Mars gave a presentation recently at a workshop of the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. EPSRC is the main funding body for engineering and physical sciences research in the UK. The event kicked of a project sponsored by the EPSRC called Designing for the Future: Optimizing the structural form of regolith-based monolithic vaults in low-gravity conditions. Benroya shared his presentation with me in which he discusses the design challenges and solutions to optimize a reliable and safe lunar habitat.
The design of space settlements on the Moon will have an array of engineering challenges including protection from radiation, meteoroids, temperature extremes and Moonquakes. In addition, human factors such as psychological and physiological aspects associated with isolation and the lower gravity conditions need to be taken into consideration. This presentation summarizes all the key design constraints, especially those surrounding the thermal and seismic conditions, laying the engineering groundwork for safe dwellings that will be erected when we return to the Moon, hopefully this time to stay and thrive.
For the technically inclined who want more information on lunar settlement design methodology be sure and check out Benroya’s excellent book Building Habitats on the Moon: Engineering Approaches to Lunar Settlements.
And don’t miss our appearance along with Dr. David Livingston of The Space Show and Moonwards‘ Kim Holder at the Icarus Interstellar 2017 Starship Congress.
