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Mass value: metric for space settlement

Image credit: Richard Bizley, bizelyart.com / National Space Society

In a paper published in New Space last March, Peter Hague describes a figure of merit he developed to drive policy decisions to help accelerate space exploration and space settlement. The aim of the paper was to generate a single metric for every potential space mission on a common scale for comparison purposes. This ‘mass value’ is the amount of mass that would need to be placed in low Earth orbit (LEO) to perform the same mission using a baseline method. That method would use only storable propellants and Hohmann transfer orbits – no gravity assists, aerocapture, high energy propellants or ISRU.

This approach puts a price on all the add-ons which expand the mission beyond the baseline. One can then use a single normalized scale to calculate how much mass to LEO you would save by making propellant on Mars for example, or by taking advantage of a certain launch window to get a gravity assist.

A hands-off government entity could subsidize space expenditures at a flat rate per kg of mass value, confident they are promoting space development without having legislators involved in engineering decisions.

Aggregating all the missions by a nation, company, or other entity could be used to calculate an analogue of GDP for a space civilization. While this does not measure everything we care about – scientific merit, human occupation, etc – neither does GDP. It does capture the overall capability to move around the solar system; and as such, is as useful for charting our journey to becoming a Type II civilization on the Kardashev Scale as it is for analyzing individual missions.

Thanks to Peter Hague for the material in this post. We’ve heard a rumor that there may be a book forthcoming on the subject. Looking forward to it!

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The current state of the U.S. space industrial base

Credits: USSF-DIU-AFRL

The U.S. Space Force, Air Force Research Laboratory and the Defense Innovation Unit just completed a workshop on the state of the U.S. space industry. The virtual event, hosted by New Space New Mexico, brought together more than 120 representatives across the federal government, industry, and academia to access the current health of the America’s space industry and to provide recommendations for strengthening that industrial base. The resulting report called “State of the Space Industrial Base 2020” has just been released this month.

The workshop focused on 6 key areas thought to be the locus of future space industry activities:

  • Space policy and finance tools
  • Space information services
  • Space transportation and logistics to, in and from cislunar space and beyond.
  • Human presence in space for exploration, space tourism, space manufacturing and resource extraction
  • Power for space systems to enable the full range of emerging space applications
  • Space manufacturing and resource extraction

Recommendations included:

  1. Industry should aggressively pursue partnerships with the US government to develop and operate joint commercial, civil and defense space capabilities. These partnerships should jointly fund developing capabilities that benefit from but are not heavily reliant on US government investment and revenue for their commercial viability.
  2. Entrepreneurs with innovative and potentially dual-use technologies must improve the protection of their intellectual property from unintended foreign assimilation, including protecting their networks from cyber exfiltration attempts, and avoiding exit strategies that transfer intellectual property to foreign control hostile to US interests.
  3. Businesses should engage across the US educational system to guide and develop the future STEM workforce to fuel the future space economy, to include funding for undergraduate scholarships/loans for STEM students, internships and providing space professionals to support instruction in space subjects.
  4. Industry should improve ties and partnerships with domestic and allied parts, subcomponent and subsystem manufacturers to strengthen trust and resilience in space supply chains.
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Going up? Space elevators getting ready for prime time

Artist’s impression of a space elevator. Credits: Steve Bowers / orionsarm.com

The International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC) has just published a position paper on the technology readiness of this alternative to launch vehicles subject to the constraints of the rocket equation. Recent advances in material science of single crystal graphene and other alternatives show potential for fabrication of tethers long enough and with the required strength to enable space elevators by the late 2030s. The authors present a case that the demand for launching enough mass to support ESA’s Moon Village, space based solar power and Elon Musk’s vision for Mars colonies far exceeds projected conventional rocket capabilities. Space elevators could fill this need while being better for the environment.

Diagram of a space elevator system. Credits: ISEC
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Cathedrals as analogs for planning generation starships

The Nauvoo generation starship from the SF thriller The Expanse. Credits: expanse.wikia.com

Generation starships have been proposed for eventual settlement of the galaxy. How will such a long term project be planned and carried out? What will be the mechanisms for financing the venture. How will stakeholders be organized and managed? Large scale multi-decade (or century) historical building projects such as cathedrals can be studied as an analog for lessons learned to inform future interstellar missions. Andreas M. Hein of the Initiative for Interstellar Studies has explored this topic in a paper recently posted on the arXiv preprint server, with interesting conclusions on modular architecture, minimum viable product and recommendations on long term financial stability.

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The logistics of dining off Earth

Artist concept of dining in space. Credits: Disney/Eater

In a recent Twitter thread Kevin Cannon shares his thoughts on the logistics of feeding an expanding population as humans settle other worlds. His “food quality” model compares different food preparation venues in an effort to highlight the challenges of feeding folks in in remote locations such as space settlements (and no, there likely won’t be food trucks in space).

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Rough index of “food quality”. Credits: Kevin Cannon / Twitter

The obvious goal is sustainable, high frequency food replenishment utilizing in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Cannon recently published a paper in which he modeled the calorie needs and land requirements for a martian settlement that reaches a population of one million people becoming self-sufficient within a hundred years. A wealth of research relevant to space settlement can be found at his website kevin.cannon.rocks.

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Beyond Earth Institute publishes policy recommendations to accelerate space settlement

Illustration of an early space settlement. Credits: Beyond Earth Institute, Inc.

The newly formed nonprofit just issued their June 2020 BE Report outlining what steps need to be taken by government and industry in the areas of export controls, best practices and multilateral agreements to foster a future where millions of people will be living and working in space, while in compliance with the Outer Space Treaty.

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Space settlement through private enterprise

Artist rendition of Starship exploring Saturn. Image credit SpaceX/Flickr

In an interview by Stuart Clark in BBC Science Focus Magazine, Vice President for North American operations for the International Space University Gary Martin answers questions on how private enterprise is changing space exploration. Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, through their own initiatives and public/private partnerships are opening up the final frontier, paving the way for space settlement.

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UFO: Investing in the space economy

Procure Space (Ticker symbol UFO) is a little known Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) available to average investors that is the only such vehicle focusing mainly on the space industry. Created by ProcureAM, LLC the ETF trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The objective of the fund is to track the S-Network Space Index which is designed to measure the performance of companies engaged in space-related industries. In the future, additional companies engaged in other space-related industries may emerge and be added to the index. These industries could include space colonization and infrastructure, among others.

Procure Space ETF (UFO) portfolio breakdown by industry sector and country. Graphic credit: ProcureAM
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National Space Society publishes NRL research on opportunities and challenges for Space Solar Power

One of many proposed space solar concepts; depiction is not to scale. Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory

NSS just posted a link to a recent NRL report outlining the next steps needed to make space solar power a reality. We’ve linked to the report on our Space Solar Power page. The report concludes with six recommendations:

(1) Mature space solar’s functional technologies and develop advanced concepts, particularly for power beaming.

(2) Monitor and maintain parity with foreign developments to avoid technological surprise, and to reduce the chances of being faced with a breakout capability.

(3) Advance robotic in-space assembly and manufacturing technology. Investment in these fields could have spin-off dividends in areas as diverse as astronomy, intelligence, and space industrialization.

(4) Address regulatory hurdles, especially in the area of spectrum identification for power beaming.

(5) Track technological progress regularly in areas such as launcher reuse and satellite mass production.

(6) Strengthen relationships between defense and civilian agencies, as well as international partners.