Image of an interstellar Worldship. Credits: Michel Lamontagne / Principium, Issue 32, February 2021
The feasibility of Worldships has been covered previously on SSP by The Initiative and Institute for Interstellar Studies via Principium. A new article by Michel Lamontagne on page 29 of the most recent issue examines the concept from a perspective of an interplanetary society which has harnessed fusion energy and life support systems for space settlements, while reducing costs through self replicating factories.
Such a starship is envisioned to use a deutrium/He3 fusion drive to accelerate to 1% of the speed of light completing a journey to Alpha Centauri in about 430 years. The author envisions a fleet of 3 or 4 (or more) Worldships housing about 1000 passengers each in rotating torus habitats 1,200m in diameter with artificial gravity.
Image of the interior of a worldship habitat. Credits: Michel Lamontagne / Principium, Issue 32, February 2021
Self replication is the key to this architecture. Lamontage explains: “If fully self replicating systems exist at the departure of the mission, Sprinter starships carrying self replicating machines can be sent at the same time as the Worldship flotilla departs. The Sprinters will arrive centuries before the Worldships, and the self replicating machines will have ample time to create multiple habitats, and perhaps begin to seed them with simple life forms.”
Lamontage cautions that the needed AI technology and practical self replicating machines may be more difficult to develop than predicted. The Worldship habitat ecosystems may encounter instabilities over centuries-long journeys leading to eventual breakdown of life support systems. Finally, rapid technological advances may lead to advanced propulsion schemes or other opportunities that would make a Worldship obsolete before getting started.
Image of Biosphere 2, a research facility to support the development of computer models that simulate the biological, physical and chemical processes to predict ecosystem response to environmental change. Credits: Biosphere 2 / University of Arizona
Once cheap access to space is realized, probably the most important technological challenge for permanent space settlements behind radiation protection and artificial gravity is a robust environmental control and life support system (ECLSS). Such a system needs to be reliably stable over long duration space missions, and eventually will need to demonstrate closure for permanent outposts on the Moon, Mars or in free space. In his thesis for a Master of Science Degree in Space Studies, Curt Holmer defines the stability of the complex web of interactions between biological, physical and chemical processes in an ECLSS and examines the early warning signs of critical transitions between systems so that appropriate mitigations can be taken before catastrophic failure occurs.
Holmer mathematically modeled the stability of an ECLSS as it is linked to the degree of closure and the complexity of the ecosystem and then validated it against actual results as demonstrated by NASA’s Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP), the first autonomous ECLSS chamber study designed by NASA to evaluate regenerative life support systems with human crews. The research concluded that current computer simulations are now capable of modeling real world experiments while duplicating actual results, but refinement of the models is key for continuous iteration and innovation of designs of ECLSS toward safe and permanent space habitats.
This research will be critical for establishing space settlements especially with respect to how much consumables are needed as “buffers” in a closed, or semi-closed life support system, when the model’s metrics indicate they are needed to mitigate instabilities. Such instabilities were encountered during the first test runs of Biosphere 2 in the early 1990s.
As SpaceX races to build a colony on Mars, they will need this type of tool to help plan the life support system. Holmer believes that completely closed life support systems for relatively large long term settlements are at least 15 to 20 years away. That means that SpaceX will need to resupply materials and consumables due to losses in their initial outpost who’s life support system in all probability will not be completely closed during the early phases of the project over the next decade. Even SpaceX cannot reduce launch costs low enough to make long term resupply economically viable. They will eventually want to drive toward a fully self sustaining ECLSS. That said, depending on how the company funds its initiatives and sets up it’s supply chains, they may not need a completely closed system for quite some time.
Of course there are sources of many of the consumables on Mars that could support a colony but not all the elements critical for ecosystems, such as nitrogen, are abundant there. There are sources of some consumables outside the Earth’s gravity well which could lower transportation costs and extend the timeline needed for complete closure. SSP covered the SHEPHERD asteroid retrieval concept in which icy planetesimals, some containing nitrogen and other volatiles needed for life support, could be harvested from the asteroid belt and transported to Mars as a supply of consumables for surface operations. TransAstra Corporation is already working on their Asteroid Provided In-situ Supplies family of flight systems that could help build the infrastructure needed for this element of the ecosystem. It may be a race between development of the competing technologies of a self-sustaining ECLSS vs. practical asteroid mining. The bigger question is if humans can thrive long term on the surface of Mars under .38G gravity. In the next century, O’Neill type colonies, perhaps near a rich source of nitrogen such as Ceres, may be the answer to where safe, long term space settlements with robust ECLSS habitats under 1G will be located.
Curt Holmer appeared recently on the The Space Show discussing his research. I called the show and asked if he had used his modeling to analyze the stability of ecosystems sized for an O’Neill-type colony. He said he had only studied habitats up to the size of the International Space Station, but that it was theoretically possible to analyze this larger ecosystem. He said he would like to pursue further studies of this nature in the future.
Artist depiction of an O’Neill cylinder from the novel K3+. Credits: Katie Lane (Full distribution rights reserved by Erasmo Acosta)
Erasmo Acosta thinks we might be headed in the wrong direction, that we may be suffering from planetary chauvinism and the better way may be to colonize space with O’Neill cylinders. He makes his case in a post on the Predict section of Medium. SSP has long been a strong proponent of free space O’Neill-type settlements, the advantages of which are numerous, not the least of which is 1G artificial gravity to prevent detrimental human health issues that may arise for occupants of colonies with lower gravity on the Moon or Mars. Such space settlements would house millions of people in perfect 70 degree controlled weather without the threat of natural disasters.
Jeff Bezos has advocated for this philosophy with the aim of moving heavy industry off world and preserving Earth’s environment for “residential zoning”. Recent developments seem to indicate he may be spending more of his time focusing on the realization of that vision.
Acosta, a retired software engineer, feels so strongly that O’Neill cylinders will be the preferred mode of space settlement he wrote a novel called K3+ which depicts a future in the next century where humans will be living in thousands of O’Neill cylinders in a “post-scarcity” civilization of virtually unlimited resources. Acosta envisions Mercury as a source of raw materials:
“The planet’s proximity to the sun, its low gravity, and metal-rich concentration make it the ideal source of raw materials for constructing thousands of O’Neill cylinders.”
In a previous post on Predict, he explains how to kickstart a program for harnessing space resources to fabricate these colonies.
After many years of construction, multiple rings of rotating habitats would eventually encircle the sun harnessing a vast amount of the energy output of our star approaching the configuration of a Dyson sphere.
Artist depiction of multiple rings of rotating habitats around the sun. Credits: Katie Lane (Full distribution rights reserved by Erasmo Acosta)
Finally, as a tribute to the father of free space colonies and an inspiration for a generation of space settlement advocates, I’d like to close out this post with a link to the just released trailer for the much anticipated documentary: The High Frontier, The Untold Story of Gerard K. O’Neill.
It’s time once again for the National Space Society’s annual Space Settlement Contest open to students from anywhere in the world up to grade 12. If you are a budding space settlement designer or have kids that are excited about creating communities in space, now is your chance to share your family’s vision in friendly competition with other space enthusiasts. Details can be found at the NSS Space Settlement Contest website curated by Al Globus.
Image of ASM Corporis, winner of 2019 NSS Space Settlement Contest. Credits: Aerospace Meridian / Illustration by Austin Pham. Corporis logo by Jayde Whiting / The Aerospace Meridian
The Space Show – the nation’s first talk radio show focusing on increasing space commerce, advancing space science and economic development, facilitating our move to a space-faring economy which will benefit everyone on Earth – needs your help. The Space Show is hosted by Dr. David Livingston, who completed his doctoral dissertation in 2001 on the commercialization and expansion of space development. Take a moment to visit The Space Show website and read Dr. Livingston’s end of year message. Please give generously to ensure this valuable resource continues to promote, encourage, and support future global economic opportunities, scientific discoveries, and medical advances for all humankind through peaceful and cooperative ventures in outer space.
Space is Open for Business by Robert Jacobson is a must-read for all potential “astropreneurs” (entrepreneurs involved the NewSpace economy), space advocates, investors or anyone who wants to keep current on space commerce and its impact on the future of humanity. This book is a refreshingly positive view of our future in space, a welcome alternative outlook in stark contrast to many dystopian and negative predictions of where we’re headed in today’s media.
Jacobson covers all aspects of the nascent space economy which has already begun to grow in leaps and bounds, and is headed for explosive growth in the near future. No stone is left unturned by his deep research of all aspects of space commerce, with scores of interviews of executives from both established and small startup space companies.
I especially liked the Sci-Fi and Society chapter in which Jacobson talks about science fiction “illuminating the possibility of the space frontier”. Much of what is now happening in space was predicted in science fiction in the last century. Many CEOs and executives of NewSpace companies were inspired to pursue careers in science or engineering through science fiction books, televisions shows and movies.
Eventually, humanity will evolve to migrate off Earth and establish space settlements throughout the solar system and eventually among the stars. Development of the technologies and commercial activities for space settlement have the potential to create vast wealth, bring billions of people out of poverty and preserve Earth’s natural environment. Jacobson has provided a hopeful glimpse of how the space businesses supporting this effort will manifest this destiny.
Solar Power Satellite delivering wireless power to the UK during daylight hours. (NOTE: power would be delivered 24/7). Credits: Frazer-Nash Consultancy
The United Kingdom’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is commissioning a study by the engineering consultancy Frazer-Nash on the feasibility of space-based solar power for delivery of clean, emission free energy to the country’s electrical power grid 24 hours a day. The study, announced on the Frazer-Nash website, will provide an impartial assessment for the government of the engineering viability, budget and economic benefits of space-based solar power for the UK. Frazer-Nash will partner with Oxford Economics, a global forecasting and quantitative analysis company.
Some key challenges expected from the investigation include: a realistic analysis of the scale of the engineering undertaking to build a satellite of such magnitude in space; can the economics justify the effort to be competitive with other sources of power generation; and finally, what are the international regulatory implications of radio frequency spectrum allocation?
Solar Power Satellite delivering wireless power to the UK at night. (NOTE: power would be delivered 24/7). Credits: Frazer-Nash Consultancy
Artist’s concept of a rectenna, a ground site that receives the microwave power transmission from a solar power satellite and converts it into electricity for a utility grid or other users. Credits: James A. Vedda and Karen L. Jones, The Aerospace Corporation
Space enthusiasts have been dreaming of the promise of space-based solar power ever since Peter Glaser first conceived of the idea in the 1960s and Gerald K. O’Neill leveraged the concept to popularize space settlements in his ground breaking book The High Frontier. But the costs have been preventatively high for many years and the technology has been stubbornly out of reach. Recent events and scientific advances have begun to change this situation. For example, launch providers are becoming more widely available and costs are coming down. Photovoltaic cell efficiency has dramatically improved since solar power satellites (SPS) were first conceived. On orbit robotic assembly, additive manufacturing and mass production is within reach. Finally, ISRU on the moon could provide access to materials outside the Earth’s gravity well dramatically reducing the cost of materials needed to build SPSs in space.
In a position paper released last month by The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy, recommendations are made for policy decisions by the U.S. government to make strategic investments in development of this space infrastructure, lest other countries beat us to the punch.
The authors of the paper, James A. Vedda and Karen L. Jones, say that “U.S. decisionmakers will have an opportunity during the next presidential term to establish the role of the United States in this potentially disruptive technology. If SPS can develop into a major component of orbital infrastructure, and someday contribute an additional source of renewable energy to users on Earth, the United States will want to be at the forefront of high-capacity power beaming in all its applications rather than become dependent on others for the technology and services they provide.”
Artist’s rendering of settlements on the Moon. Credits: Taylor Herring/Samsung via Futurism.com
A melding of multiple disciplines is required for creating a positive human space future that will enable space settlement. In addition to aerospace engineering, architecture and the traditional physical sciences we associate with space exploration, the fields of sociology, philosophy, art, space law and may others will be needed. A method for integrating these fields and coordinating them across the private sector, universities and government has been developed in The Interplanetary Initiative, a pan-university venture created at Arizona State University. The innovative research model is described in a paper in the September 2020 issue of New Space. The program turns students into team leaders and collaborators, equipping them with the skills and knowledge to solve problems anticipated to be encountered as humans expand out into the solar system.
Artist’s concept of an O’Neill space colony. Credit: Rachel Silverman / Blue Origin
J. N. Nielsen has a theory…or four. Picking up where he left off in his previous Bound in the Shallows post on Centauri Dreams about the origins of a spacefaring civilization, Nielsen explores the possibility that the nuclear rocket or fusion power may be the indispensable transformative technology that will enable breakout of a spacefaring future. But even if we develop the capability of nuclear propulsion, it may not be sufficient. We need a “mythology” to enable humanity’s next central project. As Nielson defines it, a mythology “… is a kind of recapitulation in which the contributions of ages past—whether biological, psychological, social, or cultural—are each given their due, and these antecedents serve as a springboard to something authentically novel, something unprecedented that facilitates human beings to transcend their past and to accomplish something unprecedented.”
As happens every time, whenever I dig into Nielson’s rich writings I loose myself in a beautiful philosophical landscape of culture. Give yourself some time to ponder and absorb these insightful hypotheses on what is needed to settle the solar system and beyond…and visit his Grand Strategy: View from Oregon site for more politics, economics, warfare, religion, and philosophy with a focus on civilization which often leads to consideration of the future and space exploration.
