Proposal for an International Lunar Resource Prospecting Campaign

Artist’s depiction of the NASA Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) locating and assessing the concentration of ice and other resources near the Moon’s South Pole. Credits: NASA / Daniel Rutter

NASA and space settlement advocates are justifiably excited about resources on the Moon, especially water ice known to be present in permanently shadowed regions (PSR) at the lunar poles, because of it’s potential as a source of oxygen and fuel that could be sourced in situ saving the costs of transporting these valuable commodities from Earth.  But how much ice is actually available, accessible and can be processed into useable commodities?  In other words, in terms defined by the U.S. Geological survey, what are the proven reserves?  A reserve is a subset of a resource that can be economically and legally extracted. 

By way of background, under NASA’s Moon to Mars (M2M) Architecture where the agency is defining a roadmap for return to the Moon and then on to the Red Planet, an Architecture Definition Document (ADD) with the aim of creating an interoperable global lunar utilization infrastructure was released last year.  The goals articulated in the document are to enable the U.S. industry and international partners to maintain continuous robotic and human presence on the lunar surface for a robust lunar economy without NASA as the sole user, while accomplishing science objectives and testing technology that will be needed for operations on Mars. 

Of the nine Lunar Infrastructure (LI) goals in the ADD, LI-7 addresses the need to demonstrate in situ resource utilization (ISRU) through delivery of an experiment to the lunar South Pole, the objective of which would be demonstrating industrial scale ISRU capabilities in support of a continuous human lunar presence and a robust lunar economy.  LI-8 aims to demonstrate a) the capability to transfer propellant from one spacecraft to another in space; b) the capability to store propellant for extended durations in space and c) the capability to store propellant on the lunar surface for extended durations – defining the objective to validate technologies supporting cislunar orbital/surface depots, construction and manufacturing maximizing the use of in-situ resources, and support systems needed for continuous human/robotic presence.

To accomplish these goals NASA initiated a series of Lunar Surface Science Workshops starting in 2020.  The results of workshops 17 and 18  held in 2022 were summarized last January in a paper by Neal et al. in Acta Astronautica and discussed recently at a Future In-Space Operations (FISO) Telecon on 2/14/2024 in a presentation by Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC) members Karl Hibbitts, Michael Nord, Jodi Berdis and Michael Miller.  These efforts identified a conundrum: there is not enough data to establish how much proven reserves of lunar water ice are available to inform economically viable plans for ISRU on the Moon.  Thus, a resource prospecting campaign is needed to address this problem.  International cooperation on such an initiative, perhaps in the context of the Artemis Accords, makes sense to share costs while enabling the signatories of the Accords (39 as of this post) to realize economic benefits from commerce in a developing cislunar economy.

The campaign concept proposes a 3-tiered approach. First, confirming ice is present in the PSRs near potential Artemis landing sites – this could be done by low altitude orbital reconnaissance using neutron spectroscopy, radar and other techniques. Next, surface rovers already on the drawing board such as the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER), would be deployed to locate specific reserves.

Finally, detailed characterization of the reserve using rovers leveraging capabilities learned from VIPER and optimized for reconnaissance in the PSRs. Some technological improvements would be needed in this final phase to address power and long duration roving under the expected extreme conditions. Nuclear power sources and wireless power beaming from solar arrays on the crater rims, both requiring further development, could solve these challenges. This technology will be directly transferrable to equipment needed for excavation, which will face the same power and reliability hurdles in the ultra cold darkness of the PSRs.

As mentioned in the FISO presentation and pointed out by Kevin Cannon in a previous post by SSP, how water ice is distributed in lunar regolith “endmembers” is a big unknown and could be quite varied.  Characterization during this last phase is paramount before equipment can be designed and optimized for economic extraction.

Artist’s impression of different types of lunar water ice / regolith endmembers, characterization of which will be required before extraction methods and equipment can be validated. Credits: Lena Jakaite / strike-dip.com / Colorado School of Mines

The authors of the paper acknowledge that coordinating an international effort will be difficult but involving all stakeholders will foster cooperation and shape positive legal policy within the framework of the Artemis Accords to comply with the Outer Space Treaty.  

From the conclusion of the paper:

“If the reserve potential is proven, the benefits to society on Earth would be immense, initially realized through job growth in new space industries, but new technologies developed for sending humans offworld and commodities made from lunar resources could have untold important benefits for society back here.”

George Sowers, whose research was referenced in the paper and covered by SSP, believes that “Water truly is the oil of space” that will kickstart a cislunar economy.  Once reserves of lunar water ice are proven to exist through a prospecting campaign and infrastructure is placed to enable economically feasible mining and processing for use as rocket fuel and oxygen for life support systems, technology improvements and automation will reduce costs.    If it can be made competitive with supply chains from Earth lunar water will be the liquid gold that opens the high frontier.

Starship changes the space settlement paradigm

Artist rendering of an earlier version of Starship (formerly BFR, Interplanetary Transport System) approaching Mars. Credits: SpaceX

A mission architecture for Starship is described in a preprint open access article published online December 2 to be released in the next issue of the New Space Journal. The paper lays out a proposed strategy for using the yet to be validated SpaceX reusable spacecraft to establish a self sustaining colony on Mars. The authors* are a mix of space practitioners from NASA, the space industry and academia. No doubt Elon Musk may be thinking along these lines as he lays his company’s plans to assist the human race in becoming a multi-planet species.

Starship is a game changer. It is being designed from the start to deposit massive payloads on The Red Planet. It will be capable of delivering 100 metric tons of equipment and/or crew to the Martian surface, and after refueling from locally sourced resources, returning to Earth. This capability will not only enable extensive operations on Mars, it will open up the inner solar system to affordable and sustainable colonization.

Some of the assumptions posited for the mission architecture are based on Musk’s own vision for his company’s flagship space vehicle as articulated in the New Space Journal back in 2017, namely that two uncrewed Starships would initially be sent to the surface of Mars with equipment to prepare for a sustainable human presence.

“These first uncrewed Starships should remain on the surface of Mars indefinitely and serve as infrastructure for building up the human base.”

The initial landing sites will be selected based on where the water is. The priority will be finding and characterizing ice deposits so that humans will eventually be able to locally source water for life support and to produce fuel for the trip home. The automated payloads of these initial missions will be mobile platforms similar in design to equipment planned for upcoming robotic missions to the Moon in the next couple of years. One such spacecraft, the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) is discussed with its suite of instruments that will be used to assess the composition, distribution, and depth of subsurface ice to inform follow-on ISRU operations.

“The use of water ice for ISRU has been determined as a critical feature of sustainability for a long-term human presence on Mars.”

VIPER Searches for Water Ice on the Moon
Conceptual depiction of the NASA VIPER rover planned for delivery to the Moon’s south pole in late 2023. A mobile platform with a similar suite of instruments based on this design could be launched to Mars aboard Starship. Credits: NASA

To harvest water from subsurface ice the authors suggest using proven technology such as a Rodriguez Well (Rodwell). In use since 1995, a Rodwell has been providing drinking water for the U.S. research station in Antarctica. The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s (ERDC) Cold Region Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL)  has been working with NASA to prove the technology for use in space in advance of a human outpost on Mars.

Diagram depicting how a Rodriquez Well works. Credits: U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center

“Rodwell systems are robust and still in routine use in polar regions on Earth.”

The next order of business is power generation. The authors suggest using solar power as a first choice because the technology readiness level is the most mature at this time. Autonomous deployment of a photovoltaic solar array would be carried out on the initial uncrewed missions. But due to frequent dust storms that could diminish the array reliability, nuclear power may be a more appropriate long term solution once space based nuclear power is proven. NASA’s Glenn Research center is working on Fission Surface Power with plans for a lunar Technology Demonstration Mission in the near future. A solid core nuclear reactor is also an option as the technology is well understood.

These initial missions will robotically assess the Martian environment at the landing sites to inform designs of subsequent equipment to be delivered by crewed Starship missions in future launch windows occurring every 26 months. Weather monitoring will be performed as well as measurements of radiation levels and geomorphology to inform designs of habitats and trafficability. Remotely controlled experiments on hydroponics will also be performed to understand how to produce food. Testing will be needed on excavation, drilling, and construction methods to provide data on how infrastructure for a permanent colony will be robustly designed.

Starship’s ample payload capacity will allow prepositioning of supplies of food and water to support human missions before self sustaining ISRU and agriculture can be established. Communication equipment will be deployed and landing sites prepared for the arrival of people. Much of these activities will be tested on the Moon ahead of a Mars mission.

Production of methane and oxygen in situ on Mars will enable refueling of Starship for the trip home, as envisioned in 1990 by Robert Zubrin and David Baker with their Mars Direct mission architecture. Zubrin’s Pioneer Astronautics may even play a role through provision of equipment for ISRU as they are already working on hardware that could be tested on the Moon soon. One could envision a partnership between Zubrin and Musk as their organizations have common visions, and Zubrin has written about the transformative potential of Starship. When people arrive on Starship during a subsequent launch window after the placement of uncrewed vehicles, further testing of ISRU and life support equipment will be performed with humans in the loop to validate these technologies that will enable Mars settlements to sustain themselves.

If Musk is successful in establishing a permanent self-sustaining colony on Mars will it be a true settlement? The National Space Society in their definition says that a space settlement “..includes where families live on a permanent basis, and…with the goal of becoming…biologically self-sustaining…”, i.e. capable of human reproduction. The definition is agnostic as to if the settlement is in space or on a planetary surface. Musk wants to established cities on the planet housing millions of people by mid century. But does this make sense if settlers can’t have healthy children in the lower gravity of Mars? SSP explored this question in a recent post. Hopefully, once Starship becomes operational, an artificial gravity research facility in LEO will be high on Musk’s priority list to answer this question before he gets too far down the Martian urban planning roadmap. Would he ever consider a change in space settlement strategy in favor of O’Neill type free space colonies? Starship could certainly help facilitate the realization of that vision.

If all goes according to plan, SpaceX will attempt the first orbital flight of a Starship prototype sometime next year, which also happens to be when the next launch window opens up for trips to Mars. Obviously, nothing in rocket development goes according to plan, so the initial flight ready design is at least a year away optimistically. And we know Musk’s timelines are notoriously aspirational. As ambitious as Musk is in driving his company toward the goal of colonizing Mars, it seems unlikely that an initial uncrewed mission with all its flight ready automated hardware as described above could be ready by the next launch window in 2024. But what about 2026? NASA’s current plans for return to the Moon call for a human rated version of Starship as a lunar lander “…no earlier then 2025”. However, Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawathe’s Dear Moon mission sending 8 crew members around Luna with a crewed Starship is still planned for 2023. A lot of details are yet to be worked out and we still have not covered the topic of Planetary Protection nor the granting of a launch license to SpaceX by the FAA, but could a Starship human mission to Mars take place in 2028? Let me know what you think.

“The SpaceX Starship vehicle fundamentally changes the paradigm for human exploration of space and enables humans to develop into a multi-planet species.”

* Authors of Mission Architecture Using the SpaceX Starship Vehicle to Enable a Sustained Human Presence on Mars Jennifer L. Heldmann, Margarita M. Marinova, Darlene S.S. Lim, David Wilson, Peter Carrato, Keith Kennedy, Ann Esbeck, Tony Anthony Colaprete, Rick C. Elphic, Janine Captain, Kris Zacny, Leo Stolov, Boleslaw Mellerowicz, Joseph Palmowski, Ali M. Bramson, Nathaniel Putzig, Gareth Morgan, Hanna Sizemore, and Josh Coyan

Intuitive Machine’s PRIME-1 ice mining drill to be delivered to the Moon by 2022

Illustration of Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Lander. Credits: Intuitive Machines

As part of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative, NASA has selected Intuitive Machines to deliver ice harvesting equipment called Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment (PRIME-1) to the Moon’s south pole. In a press release from yesterday, Intuitive stated that the instrument package includes a drill to excavate ice ladened regolith and a mass spectrometer to characterize the volatiles, the data from which will be used by the VIPER mission to follow shortly thereafter. Knowing how much water is available and how accessible it is will inform subsequent in situ resource utilization efforts needed for sustainable human outposts planned for later this decade.

Student concept for a crewed lunar rover in support of Artemis

Image depicting EMPRESS. Credits: SEDS-UPRM

When the first woman and next man return to the Moon under the Artemis Program, they will need a mobile scientific platform to assist with exploration of the lunar south pole. Under the Revolutionary Aerospace System Concepts – Academic Linkage (RASC-AL) competition, a team of Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS) at the University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez (UPRM) won 1st Place in the contest with their Exploration Multi-Purpose Rover for Expanding Surface Science (EMPRESS). The rover would land at Shackleton crater at the lunar south pole in 2023 taking samples and exploring the region in preparation for the first crewed Artemis mission in 2024.

The rover is envisioned to include two robotic arms and a suite of seven scientific instruments to characterize the lunar surface composition as well as other high priority astrophysical investigations. One the proposed instruments is a neutron spectrometer that could sense the amount of hydrogen in the regolith using data from maps compiled by the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) which will survey the lunar south pole for the presence of volatiles and water ahead of the Artemis Missions. This could pave the way for ice mining operations and eventual space settlements in a cislunar water economy.

University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez winning SEDS team of the 2020 RASC-AL Virtual Forum. Credits: RASC-AL