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Lunar-derived propellant fueling a cislunar economy may be competitive with Earth

AI generated image depicting a propellant factory on the Moon. Credits: DALL-E

The economics of an in-space industry based on lunar-derived rocket propellant was examined by Florida Space Institute planetary physicist Philip Metzger in a prepublication paper submitted to arXiv on March 16 . The study will be published in the June issue of Acta Astronautica. Many skeptics of this approach believe that with launch costs plummeting, driven down primarily due to reusability pioneered by SpaceX, it will be cheaper to power the nascent cislunar economy with propellant launched from Earth rather then fuel derived from lunar ice mining.

In his analysis, Metzger examines a cislunar economy of companies that operate geostationary satellites which need to purchase boost services using orbital transfer vehicles fueled by cryogenic hydrogen and oxygen. The question is, would sourcing H2/O2 from ice mined on the Moon be competitive with launching propellant from Earth. He notes that previous studies that favored Earth to solve this problem were flawed because they compared the different technologies for mining water on the Moon (e.g. strip mining, borehole sublimation, tent sublimation, or excavation with beneficiation) rather than analyzing the economics of the cis-lunar economy as a sector.

With that approach in mind, Metzger develops an economic model with figures of merit to assess how various technologies for ice mining compare to Earth sourced propellant. One such parameter is the “gear ratio” G, which in the parlance of orbital dynamics, is the ratio of the mass of hardware and propellant before versus after moving between two locations in accordance with the rocket equation. The other key metric is the production mass ratio Ø, which is the mass of propellant delivered to a specific location divided by the mass of the capital equipment needed to produce the fuel.

The “tent sublimation technology” mentioned in the paper was invented by George Sowers and is featured in his 2019 NIAC Phase I Final Report on ice mining from cold bodies in the solar system covered by SSP previously.

Although G is constrained by the laws of physics, reasonable values are possible and a value of Ø ≥ 35 is the threshold above which lunar propellant wins out. The tent sublimation technology is estimated to have Ø over 400, an order of magnitude higher than the minimum to gain an advantage. Metzger’s new approach took into account that launch costs will eventually come down as far as possible but even then, found that lunar propellant can be produced at a competitive advantage. The only caveat is validation of the TRL and reliability of ice mining technologies.

“Lunar-derived rocket propellant can outcompete rocket propellant launched from Earth, no matter how low launch costs go.”

Although not included in Metzger’s study, a method for extraction of water from lunar regolith is heating by low power microwaves. A recent study found that this technology is effective for extracting water from simulated lunar soil laced with ice. It would be interesting to see if Ø for this technique exceeds the advantage threshold.

Developing the business case for lunar water is the first step in rapidly bootstrapping an off-Earth economy.  Metzger has written about this previously where he sees robotics, 3D printing and in situ resource utilization being leveraged to accelerate growth of a solar system civilization.

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A brief history of starship pioneering

The photon rocket on an interstellar voyage exploring exoplanets. Credit: © David A. Hardy / www.astroart.org

Eventually we will get to the stars. It may not happen in our lifetime but its going to happen some day. Adam Crowl has provided a nice historical review of the interstellar pioneers from the last century that worked out the physics of the starships that will take us there. He does this in a chapter he wrote for James and Gregory Benford’s ground-breaking anthology Starship Century which was based on the findings of the 100‐Year Starship Symposium seeded by a DARPA solicitation and executed by NASA back in 2011.

Crowl begins the story with the early days of rocketry pioneered by Tsiolkovsky determining the rocket equation and Goddard and others experimenting with liquid fueled rockets. Tsiolkovsky was the first to come up with the idea of a generation starship (sometimes referred to as a worldship) when he realized that existing chemical propellants would be insufficient to fuel a space ship for interstellar travel.

Artist depiction of an interstellar worldship. Credits: Michel Lamontagne / Principium, Issue 32, February 2021

More practical interstellar craft don’t come on the scene until after WWII when advanced propulsion concepts really take off. The possibility of harnessing light to “push” a rocket, feasible because photons carry momentum, first appeared in science fiction. As it turned out, physicists realized that to generate the needed thrust with light pressure would require enormous amounts of energy, the waste heat of which would vaporized the vessel. Nevertheless, the photon rocket was still being discussed as late as 1972 when I first saw the rendering at the top of this post by David Hardy in the book he coauthored with Patrick Moore called Challenge of the Stars. Fast forward to today, Dr. Young K. Bae’s Photonic Laser Thruster shows great promise if it can be scaled up for interstellar travel.

Diagram depicting the layout of the Photonic Laser Thruster. Credits: Young K. Bae, Ph.D.

In the latter half of the last century, as the physics of nuclear energy and laser technology progressed, we see a proliferation of many concepts for star travel, including various forms of fusion rockets, laser sails, antimatter propulsion and my personal favorite, the Bussard ramjet. Conceived by the physicist Robert Bussard in 1960, the ship eliminates the need to carry fuel by collecting hydrogen from the interstellar medium using a magnetic field as a ram scoop and compresses the gas to fusion temperatures to create thrust. Crowl summarizes some of the physical limitations of the original concept and discusses several physicist’s alternative designs to address them.

One concept that didn’t make it into Crowl’s piece was developed recently by Leif Holmlid and Sindre Zeiner-Gundersen. Called the laser induced annihilation drive, it uses a pulsed laser to initiate “antimatter-like” annihilation reactions in hydrogen fuel producing high velocity K meson elementary particles at relativistic speeds to generate thrust.

Diagram of a laser-induced annihilation generator for space propulsion. Credit: Leif Holmlid and Sindre Zeiner-Gundersen, Acta Astronautica 23 May 2020

When I asked Crowl if he had any updates to some of the starship propulsion concepts he sent me an article penned by an unknown author for Medium that came up with another alternative to address the limitations of the original Bussard Ramjet. The author, who goes by the pseudonym “deepfuturetech”, reminds us like Crowl discussed in his piece, that the cross section ( i.e. the probability that a given atomic nucleus or subatomic particle will undergo a nuclear reaction in relation to the species of the incident particle) of the Bussard ramjet proton-proton fusion reaction is too low to be useful. Deepfuturetech proposes a different fusion mechanism via (p,n) reactions which involve a nucleus capturing a proton and subsequently emitting a neutron. These type of reactions have higher cross sections and could be tested in reactors in the near future. Further analysis is needed to confirm whether these reactions could produce neutrons at sufficiently low energy cost to enable profitable hydrogen fusion.

Artist depiction of a Bussard ramjet. Credits: NASA

Incidentally, Crowl talked about many of these starship concepts at a subsequent Starship Century Symposium held in 2013 by the Arthur C. Clarke Center for Human Imagination in collaboration with the Benford brothers who shared the highlights from their Starship Century anthology summarizing scientific results from the 100‐Year Starship project. You can also get a “Deeper Future View” of his independent research on interesting items not typically covered by the mainstream science media at his blog Crowlspace.