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Economic benefits from space mining

A fictional depiction of an ore ship servicing mining operations on an asteroid. Credits: DALL∙E 3

The clean energy transition away from fossil fuels promoted by the Biden Administration and other world governments will require significant increases in mining of critical materials for clean energy technology. To support the huge projected growth in solar, wind, and battery technologies over the next few decades, demand for key minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel and rare-earth metals will balloon significantly according a 2021 report by the International Energy Agency: The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. When compared to current supply levels, sourcing of these materials will need to grow by several hundred percent, with lithium in particular predicted to explode by 4,200% to keep pace with the needed battery production for EVs and other energy storage systems. There is insufficient mining capability in the world today to meet this demand, and if capacity were ramped up to these levels, there would be serious environmental and economic consequences. If we ignore other promising alternatives (which SSP does not advocate) such as ramping up licensing of new nuclear fission power plants and funding development of fusion energy or space solar power, what can be done?

In the journal PNAS, a research article makes the case for why mining in space may be a viable solution and help lay the foundation for sustainable growth on Earth. The author’s* objective for the paper was to perform a trade study on the economic outcomes associated with the environmental and social impacts of terrestrial mining compared to the costs of sourcing from asteroids, focusing primarily on metals required for the clean energy technologies such as copper, nickel cobalt and lithium. The methodology of the paper used a neoclassical Ramsey economic model to predict economic growth under those two scenarios. The study quantifies the economic benefits and projected timelines of mining in space for increasing metal use in clean technologies on Earth for the rest of this century and concludes that the reduction in costs due to environmental damage to our planet’s biosphere may be worth the investment in asteroid mining.

Along similar lines another economic analysis by Matthew Weinzierl makes the potential case for an expanding space economy as a solution to secular stagnation, that condition that some economists fear is happening in the US: a chronic lack of demand as if the economy is operating below capacity even when it appears to be booming. Weinzierl says “In simple terms, secular stagnation is the idea that a sluggish outlook for the economy causes people to save more and firms to invest less, and if interest rates cannot fall enough to spur investment (perhaps because of the sluggish outlook), the lack of investment makes the low-growth prospects all the more likely to be fulfilled, initiating a vicious cycle.” How could space development help prevent this problem? Space settlement, i.e. world building, would unlock abundant resources in the solar system to sustain not only capital investment in expanding economic activity, but robust population growth without limits.

An interesting perspective on off-Earth mining as a commercial engine driving a space economy, with a focus on a thriving Martian colony, was proposed a few years ago in a paper by Robert Shishko and others. The study examined the role of space mining in an economy based on mineral extraction, ice/water, and other resources obtained in situ on the Red Planet. The analysis provided a better understanding of the market conditions and technology requirements for that economy to grow and prosper. This approach would definitely benefit from the recent discovery of massive amounts of subsurface water ice under the Medusae Fossae Formation near the equator of Mars.

Mars Express radar image of subsurface water ice beneath the Medusae Fossae Formation near the equator of Mars. Credits: ESA

If an economic case can be made for space mining and funding secured, it will be dependent on the location of the most profitable and accessible space resources in terms of energy and abundance of useful material. Where will this motherlode for space mining be? SSP has covered this debate.

One of the companies on this frontier is UK based Asteroid Mining Corporation which has the goal of becoming the first profitable space resources business. The startup is working on an autonomous robotic platform call Space Capable Asteroid Robot Explorer with a roadmap that plans for revenue payout at each milestone with eventual return of asteroid resources in the mid-2030s.

Asteroid Mining Corporation’s Space Capable Asteroid Robotic Explorer. Credits: Asteroid Mining Corporation.

And of course readers of SSP are familiar with AstroForge, the company focusing on returning precious metals to Earth from asteroids.

Upon full maturation of AI and space-based robotics technology, it will be possible to autonomously restructure an asteroid to construct spin gravity space settlements using materials in situ.

Artist impression of a rotating space settlement under construction using material from an asteroid. Credits: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com

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* Authors of research article in PMAS Mining in Space Could Spur Sustainable Growth: Maxwell Fleming, Ian Lange, and Sayeh Shojaeinia of the Colorado School of Mines; Martin Stuermer of the International Monetary Fund.

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The prospects for mining precious metals and structural materials from asteroids

Artist impression of an asteroid smelting operation. Credits: Bryan Versteeg / spacehabs.com

When humanity migrates out into the solar system we’ll need a variety of elements on the periodic table to build settlements and the infrastructure needed to support them such as solar power satellites. But before that future becomes a reality, there may be a near term market on Earth for precious metals sourced in space as transportation costs come down. There is also the added benefit of moving the mining industry off planet to preserve the environment. Could the asteroid belt provide these materials? Kevin Cannon, assistant professor at the Space Resources Program at the Colorado School of Mines describes the prospects for mining precious metals and building materials for space infrastructure asteroids in a recent paper in Planetary and Space Science. Coauthors on the paper Matt Gialich and Jose Acain, are CEO and CTO, respectively, at the asteroid mining company AstroForge which just came out of stealth mode last year.

The asteroids have accessible mining volume that exceeds that available on the Moon or Mars. This is because only the thin outer crust of these bodies is reachable by excavation, whereas the asteroids are small enough to be totally consumed resulting in higher accessible mining volume.

To-scale accessible mining volume of terrestrial bodies, calculated as the total volume for the asteroids (main belt mass of 2.39 x 1023 kg, mean bulk density of 2000 kg/m3), and as the volume for an outer shell 1.2 km in thickness for the Moon, Mercury, and Mars, equivalent to the deepest open pit mine on Earth. Note the combined volume of the near-Earth asteroids (~5 x 1012 m3) is too small to be visible at this scale. Figure 1 in paper. Credits K.M. Cannon et al.

The authors take a fresh look at available data from meteorite fragments of asteroids. Their analysis found that for Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), the accessible concentrations are higher in asteroids than ores here on Earth making them potentially profitable to transport back for use in commodity markets.

“Asteroids are a promising source of metals in space, and this promise will mostly be unlocked in the main belt where the Accessible Mining Volume of bodies greatly exceeds that of the terrestrial planets and
moons”

PGMs are indispensable in a wide range of industrial, medical, and electronic applications. Some examples of end-use applications include catalysts for the petroleum and auto industries (palladium and platinum), in pacemakers and other medical implants (iridium and platinum), as a stain for fingerprints and DNA (osmium), in the production of nitric acid (rhodium), and in chemicals, such as cleaning liquids, adhesives, and paints (ruthenium).

It has been pointed out by some analysts that flooding markets here on Earth with abundant supplies of PGMs from space will cause prices to plummet, but the advantage of reducing carbon emissions and environmental damage associated with mining activities may make it worth it. The authors also point out that there are probably various uses where PGMs offer advantages in material properties over other metals but are not being used because they are currently too expensive.

Asteroids are rich in other materials such as silicon and aluminum which would be economically more useful for in-space applications. As the authors point out, some companies are already planning for use of metals and manufacturing in space such as Redwire Corporation with their On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (OSAM) and Archinaut One, which will attempt to build structural beams in LEO. Another example mentioned in the paper has been covered by SSP: the DARPA NOM4D program with aspirations to develop technologies for manufacturing megawatt-class solar arrays and radio frequency antennas using space materials. Finally, another potential market for aluminum sourced in space is fuel for Neumann Thrusters (although spent upper stage orbital debris may provide nearer term supplies). And of course, silicon will be needed to fabricate photovoltaic cell arrays for space-based solar power.

AstroForge will test their asteroid mining technology on two missions this year. Brokkr-1, a 6U CubeSat just launched on the SpaceX Transporter 7 mission last April, will validate the company’s refinery technology for extracting metals by vaporizing simulated asteroid materials and separating out the constituent components. Brokkr-2 will launch a second spacecraft on a rideshare mission chartered by Intuitive Machines attempting their second Moon landing later this year. Brokkr-2 will hitch a ride and then fly on to a target asteroid located over 35 million km from Earth. The journey is expected to take about 11 months and will fly by the body and continue testing for two years to simulate a roundtrip mission.

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Dennis Wingo’s strategy for development of cislunar space and beyond

Image credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University

The Cislunar Science and Technology Subcommittee of the White House Office Science and Technology Policy Office (OSTP) recently issued a Request for Information to inform development of a national science and technology strategy on U.S. activities in cislunar space.

Dennis Wingo provided a response to question #1 of this RFI, namely what research and development should the U.S. government prioritize to help advance a robust, cooperative, and sustainable ecosystem in cislunar space in the next 10 to 50 years?

In a prolog to his response Wingo reminds us that historically, NASA’s mission has focused narrowly on science and technology.  What is needed is a sense of purpose that will capture the imagination and support of the American people.    In today’s world there seems to be more dystopian predictions of the future than positive visions for humanity.  We seem to be dominated by fear of “…doom and gloom scenarios of the climate catastrophe, the degrowth movement, and many of the most negative aspects of our current societal trajectory.”  This fear is manifested by what Wingo defines as a “geocentric” mindset focused primarily within the material limitations of the Earth and its environs.

“The question is, is there an alternative to change this narrative of gloom and doom?”

He recommends that policy makers foster a cognitive shift to a “solarcentric” worldview: the promise of an economic future of abundance through utilization of the virtually limitless resources of the Moon, Asteroids, and of the entire solar system.  An example provided is to harvest the resources of the asteroid Psyche which holds a billion times the minable metal on Earth, and to which NASA had planned on launching an exploratory mission this year but had to delay it due to late delivery of the spacecraft’s flight software and testing equipment.

Artist rendering of NASA’s Psyche Mission spacecraft.  Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Arizona State Univ./Space Systems Loral/Peter Rubin

Back to the RFI, Wingo has four recommendations that will open up the solar system to economic development and address many of the problems that cause the geocentrists despair. 

First, we should make the Artemis moon landings permanent outposts with year long stays as opposed to 6 day “camping trips”. This should be possible with resupply missions by SpaceX as they ramp up Starship launch rates (assuming the launch vehicle and lander are validated in the same timeframe, which seems reasonable). Next, we need power and lots of it – on the order of megawatts.  This should be infrastructure put in place by the government to support commerce on the Moon.  By leveraging existing electrical power standards and production techniques, large scale solar power facilities could be mass produced at low cost on Earth and shipped to the moon before the capability of in situ utilization of lunar resources is established.  Some companies such as TransAstra already have preliminary designs for solar power facilities on the Moon.

Which brings us to ISRU.  The next recommendation is to JUST DO IT.  This technology is fairly straightforward and could be used to split oxygen from metal oxides abundant in lunar regolith to source air and steel.  Pioneer Astronautics is already developing what they call Moon to Mars Oxygen and Steel Technology (MMOST) for just this application.

Conceptual illustration of the Lunar OXygen In-situ Experiment (LOXIE) Production Prototype. Credits: Mark Berggren / Pioneer Astronautics

And lets not forget the wealth of in situ resources that could be unlocked via synthetic geology made possible by Kevin Cannon’s Pinwheel Magma Reactor.

Conceptual depiction of the Pinwheel Magma Reactor on a planetary surface in the foreground and in free space on a tether as shown in the inset. Credits: Kevin Cannon

Of course there is water everywhere in the solar system just waiting to be harvested for fuel and life support in a water-based economy.

Illustration of an ice extraction concept for collection of water on the Moon. Credits: George Sowers / Colorado School of Mines

Wingo’s final recommendation is industrialization of the Moon in preparation for the settlement of Mars followed by the exploration of the vast resources of the Asteroid Belt.  He makes it clear that this is more important than just a goal for NASA, which has historically focused on scientific objectives, and should therefore be a national initiative.

“…for the preservation and extension of our society and to preclude the global fight for our limited resources here.”

With the right vision afforded by this approach and strong leadership leading to its implementation, Wingo lays out a prediction of how the next fifty years could unfold. By 2030 over ten megawatts of power generation could be emplaced on the Moon which would enable propellant production from the pyrolysis of metal oxides and hydrogen production from lunar water.  This capability allows refueling of Starship obviating the need to loft propellent from Earth and thereby lowering the costs of a human landing system to service lunar facilities.  From there the cislunar economy would begin to skyrocket.

The 2040s see a sustainable 25% annual growth in the lunar economy with a burgeoning Aldrin Cycler business to support asteroid mining and over 1000 people living on the Moon.

By the 2050s, fusion reactors provide power and propulsion while the first Ceres settlement has been established providing minerals to support the Martian colonies.

“The sky is no longer the limit”

By sowing these first seeds of infrastructure a vibrant cislunar economy will enable sustainable settlement across the solar system. A solarcentric development mythology may be just what is needed to become a spacefaring civilization.

Artist’s concept of an O’Neill space colony. Credits: Rachel Silverman / Blue Origin

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Where is the mother lode of space mining? The Moon or near-Earth asteroids?

Conceptual rendering of TransAstra Honey Bee Optical Mining Vehicle designed to harvest water from near-Earth asteroids: Credits: TransAstra Corporation

Advocates for mining the Moon and asteroids for resources to support a space based economy are split on where to get started. Should we mine the Moon’s polar regions or would near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) be easier to access?

Joel Sercel, founder and CEO of TransAstra Corporation, is positioning his company to be the provider of gas stations for the coming cislunar economy. In a presentation on asteroid mining to the 2020 Free Market Forum he makes the case (about 10 minutes into the talk) that from an energy perspective in terms of delta V, NEAs located in roughly the same orbital plane as the Earth’s orbit may be easier to access for mining volatiles and rare Earth elements.

Scott Dorrington of the University of New South Wales discusses an architecture of a near-Earth asteroid mining industry in a paper from the proceedings of the 67th International Astronautical Congress. He models a transportation network of various orbits in cislunar space for an economy based on asteroid water-ice as the primary commodity. The network is composed of mining spacecraft, processing plants, and space tugs moving materials between these orbits to service customers in geostationary orbit.

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Illustration depicting the layout of a transportation network in an asteroid mining industry in cislunar space. Credits: Scott Dorrington

On the other side of the argument, Kevin Cannon of the Colorado School of Mines in a post on his blog Planetary Intelligence lays out the case for the Moon being the best first choice. All of the useful elements available on asteroids are present on the Moon, and in some cases they are easier to access in terms of concentrated ore deposits. Although delta V requirements are higher to lift materials off the Moon, its much closer to where its needed in a cislunar economy. Trips out to a NEA would take a long time with current propulsion systems. In addition, he thinks mining NEAs would be an “operational nightmare” as most of these bodies are loose rubble piles of rocks and pebbles with irregular surfaces and very low gravity. This makes it hard to “land” on the asteroid, or difficult to capture and manipulate them. In an email I asked him if he was aware of SHEPHERD, a concept for gentle asteroid retrieval with a gas-filled enclosure which SSP covered in a previous post, but he had not heard of it. TransAstra’s Queen Bee asteroid mining spacecraft has a well thought out capture mechanism as well, although this concept like SHEPHERD are currently at very low technology readiness levels.

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SHEPHERD-Fuel variant harvesting ice from a NEA and condensing it into liquid water in storage tanks, then subsequent separation into hydrogen and oxygen (top). These tanks become the fuel source for a self-propelling tanker block (bottom) which can be delivered to a refueling rendezvous point in cislunar space. Credits: Concept depicted by: Bruce Damer and Ryan Norkus with key design partnership from Peter Jenniskens and Julian Nott

Cannon also makes the point that there is very little mass in the accessible NEAs when compared to the abundance of elements on the Moon.

“There’s more than enough material for near-term needs on the Moon too, and it’s far closer and easier to operate on.”

Finally, he believes that the Moon would be a better stepping stone to mining the asteroids then NEAs would be. This is because most of the mass in the asteroid belt is located in the largest bodies Ceres and Vesta. Operations for mining on these worlds would be more akin to activities on the Moon then on near-Earth asteroids.

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Image of Vesta taken from the NASA Dawn spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JPL

What about moving a NEA to cislunar space as proposed by NASA under the Obama Administration with the Asteroid Redirect Mission? Paul Sutter, an astrophysicist at SUNY Stony Brook and the Flatiron Institute, investigates this scenario and suggests that at least the argument for these asteroids being too far away might be mitigated by this approach, although it would take a long time to retrieve them using solar electric propulsion, as recommended in the article. The trip time might be reduced with advanced propulsion such as nuclear thermal rockets currently under investigation by NASA.

It should be noted that TransAstra has both bases covered. They are working on innovations such as their Sun Flower™ power tower for harvesting water at the lunar poles as well as the company’s Apis™ family of spacecraft for asteroid capture and mining of NEAs.

Conceptual illustration of TransAstra’s Sun Flower™ power towers collecting solar energy above a permanently shadowed region on the Moon to provide power for ice mining operations. Credits: TransAstra Corp.

Update 28 August 2021: Take a deep dive into TransAstra’s future plans with Joel Sercel interviewed by Peter Garretson, Senior Fellow in Defense Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council podcast Space Strategy.

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Seeding asteroids with fungi for space habitat soil

Illustration of a process for making soil for space habitats by seeding asteroids with fungi. Credits: Jane Shevtsov

The asteroid belt will be a treasure trove of raw material for space settlers to use to build their habitats, especially the O’Neill-type rotating cylinder variety. To support plentiful green spaces and robust agricultural systems envisioned for these large scale settlements, an abundant source of fertile soil will be needed. But how could the enormous cost of bringing soil from Earth be avoided? An innovative in situ method under development by Jane Shevtsov of Trans Astronautica Corporation may provide the answer. In a just awarded NASA NIAC Phase 1 grant proposal, she explains that the envisaged soil-making process would be a “…natural fit for asteroid mining operations targeting volatiles, as they use carbonaceous asteroids and leave behind leftover regolith that should make a suitable parent material for soil production.”

The Phase 1 research will be broken down into two tasks. In Task 1 the leading fungal species will be identified for experimentation on asteroid material simulant followed by determination of soil production rates of the fungi along with the effects of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and oxygen concentration. Task 2 will explore various methods of breaking down asteroid regolith by the chosen fungi in the space environment optimizing for productivity and costs, with the ultimate goal of determining the size of a payload to support a reference mission habitat within a feasible timeframe.

In the above diagram, there are hints that the concept may use an inflatable enclosure around the asteroid to retain volatiles, reminiscent of some of the applications of the SHEPHERD asteroid capture architecture previously covered by SSP, in which a gas atmosphere within the enclosure can keep water in a liquid phase so that the asteroid provides a substrate for introduced biological agents for the generation of foodstuffs and other consumables.

Trans Astronautica has been working on their own asteroid capture method which may come in handy when used in combination with the output of Ms. Shevtsov’s project.

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2020 NIAC Symposium showcases cutting edge technology for space development

Illustration of SPEAR (Swarm Probe Enabling ATEG Reactor), an affordable nuclear electric propulsion spacecraft using a custom designed fission reactor. Credits: Troy Howe, Howe Industries LLC

The 2020 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Symposium just rapped up it’s virtual event. The NAIC Program supports early studies of visionary concepts in space and aeronautics that develop and assess revolutionary, yet credible, aerospace architecture, mission, and system concepts. These studies showcase ideas that will enable far-term capabilities, and spawn exciting innovations to radically improve aerospace exploration, science, and operations.

There were a wealth of new ideas presented at this year’s meeting with Phase I, II, and III posters and presentations available as PDFs on the NAIC Symposium website. To give you a taste, above is an illustration of Howe Industries’ Phase II concept for a small, affordable nuclear electric propulsion spacecraft using a custom designed fission reactor with advanced thermoelectric generators (ATEGs). The innovative design would allow private entities, universities, or other interested parties to carry out missions across the solar system at relatively low cost.

Another favorite of ours was Trans Astronautica’s Mini Bee asteroid capture concept in which they will deploy, then chase down and “swallow” a test object in LEO as a precursor to an asteroid mining mission.

Illustration of Trans Astronautica Corporation’s Mini Bee spacecraft chasing down and capturing an artificial asteroid in LEO. Credits: Joel Sercel / Trans Astronautica Corporation

Some of these NIAC grants have already been covered by SSP such as Phil Metzger’s Aqua Factorem lunar water harvesting process, Masten’s instant lunar landing pad and Trans Astronautica Corporation’s Lunar Polar Propellant Mining Outpost.

We leave you with JPL’s Enceladus Vent Explorer

Illustration of Enceladus Vent Explorer concept. Credits: Masahiro (Hiro) Ono / Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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The business of asteroid mining

APS-1, an asteroid prospecting satellite conducting a spectral survey of 5000 Near Earth Asteroids (NEA). Credits: Asteroid Mining Corporation.

The Asteroid Mining Corporation wants to open the resources of the solar system toward a brighter interplanetary future. AMC claims that it does not need to mine an asteroid to be commercially successful, at least initially. The small start up proposes a practical transitional approach based on incremental successes to pay the bills while capitalizing on technological innovations to achieve the ultimate goal of mining an asteroid.

They plan to start with a remote sensing mission called Asteroid Prospecting Satellite (APS-1) to survey Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) to identify which are the most viable candidates for mining. AMC will then sell this data to customers interested in their own mining operations.

The next mission would be an Asteroid Exploration Probe (AEP-1) capable of visiting multiple targets and including a small landing probe to survey the mineralogical, metallurgical and molecular constituents of the most promising high platinum bearing Asteroids identified by APS-1, and test mining equipment.

AEP-1, an asteroid exploration probe visiting a promising NEA to confirm mineral content and test mining equipment. Credits: AMC.

The ultimate goal of AMC’s effort is the worlds first asteroid mining mission called Asteroid Mining Probe (AMP-1) designed to extract 20 tons of platinum. The AMP-1 spacecraft would be marketed to other customers around the world and would help establish the infrastructure for an extraterrestrial economy.

AMP-1, Earth’s first commercial asteroid mining mission. Credits: AMC
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New L5 space settlement concept published by NSS

(a) Spinning duel-dumbbell space settlement with elevator shaft and central docking ports, (b) with ringroad, cylindrical solar panels and greenhouse areas indicated (green). Credits: Pekka Janhunen / NSS Space Settlement Journal

The spinning dual-sphere orbital colony would house 200 settlers completely shielded by asteroid material and under 1G artificial gravity. The business case is promising if launch costs come down to $300/kg. The new paper was just posted on the NSS Space Settlement Journal, an open access journal chuck full of papers on space settlement enabling technologies.