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Pale Red Dots on Mars

Conceptual illustration of two Pale Red Dot villages on Mars serviced by SpaceX Starships. Credits: Pale Red Dot Team*

Pale Red Dot is an acronym for Polis-based Architecture for the Long-term Exploration of the Red planet, with Exciting and Diverse Developmental Opportunities to Thrive. This concept, which was the first place winner of the NASA 2023 RASC-AL competition in the category of Homesteading Mars by a team* at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Space Resources Workshop, focuses on establishing a city-state with Earth-independence supporting extensive scientific exploration on Mars. NASA’s RASC-AL (Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts – Academic Linkages) competitions foster innovation of aerospace systems concepts, analogs, and technology by bridging gaps through university engagement.

This architecture envisions sending robotic precursor missions to Mars following experience gained from NASA’s Artemis program to survey sites, test technologies, and stockpile resources like water and propellant. Lets be honest up front that this paper is two years old and timelines for return to the Moon have been moved out. Predictions on milestones in the paper for this plan as described below should take these delays into account. With the current Trump administration the fate of Artemis program is evolving. There are many possibilities being proposed to streamline NASA’s plans, one of which by retired aerospace engineer and entrepreneur Rand Simberg, leverages public-private partnerships to get humans back to the moon. Keeping this in mind, when humans return to the lunar surface, Pale Red Dot would leverage the engineering knowledge gained from robotic landers and human missions used in Artemis or any subsequent initiative that emerges.

Next, in 2035 (at the earliest), robotic cargo SpaceX Starships would deliver approximately 5,800 tons of equipment consisting of habitats, nuclear microreactors, farming modules, manufacturing facilities, and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems. By 2040, two crewed Starships would transport 36 colonists to Mars to establish two closely located villages. Costs would be shared by nations that are signatories of the Artemis Accords, 56 and counting as of this post.

The study used a modelling approach that prioritized safety and crew health in design of the architectures, both in transportation and surface facilities. Relying heavily on NASA’s current career permissible limits for space radiation, exposure was minimized by splitting the crew among two Starships, each one adding a 71-ton 35cm polyethylene shield, and dashing to Mars within 113 days. Upon arrival, to guard against galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events, the initial surface habitats will have integrated 3m water tanks in their roofs for radiation shielding. The plans call for gradually building out radiation-proof underground tunnel habitats. Although not considered in this scenario, locating the settlements in a lava tube could be advantageous not only for ready-made radiation protection but thermal management as well.

The Pale Red Dot (PBD) architecture emphasizes robustness and thriving, rather than just survival, through substantial infrastructure supporting 36 crew members across two Martian villages. This includes extensive makerspaces and significant reliance on ISRU. The two nearby villages are designed to be energy-rich, water-rich, food-rich, time-rich, and capability-rich, with substantial self-rescue capabilities.

Diagram from Figure 4 in the paper depicting one of two villages of the Pale Red Dot architecture showing zone layout with modules for farms, habitation, mission utilization and makerspaces. Credits: Pale Red Dot Team*

The site chosen for the PRD settlements was based on a NASA Exploration Zone workshop in 2015. Called Deuteronilus Mensae, its situated near a glacier water source, in a hilly region that may be suitable for tunneling. More recent discoveries by the European Space Agency’s Mars Express orbiter, using its MARSIS radar, have revealed extensive water ice deposits up to 3.7 km thick beneath Mars’ equator in the Medusae Fossae Formation.

Extraction methods for sourcing in situ water were not addressed in the PRD architecture. This should not be a problem though as the communities could leverage methods that have already been validated, such as the RedWater System which could drill for, and collect, subsurface water ice.

The paper argues that such a large architecture, with its economies of scale and specialization, is crucial for mitigating the risks associated with a long-duration, minimally resupplied mission to Mars. Crew time modeling suggests that smaller missions with 12 or fewer people would not provide sufficient free surface traverse time for meaningful science and exploration. The estimated lifecycle cost for this campaign is $81 billion, with a peak annual cost of $6.6 billion.

The PRD concept highlights the potential for creating a true community on Mars with sufficient social complexity for humans to thrive. Furthermore, it proposes the geopolitically significant option of including crew members from every Artemis Accords signatory in the first human mission to Mars. Comprehensive details are provided on the dual-habitat architecture, concept of operations, mission control, technology roadmap, and risk burn-down plan.

* MIT Pale Red Dot Team Membership:

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Proposal for an International Lunar Resource Prospecting Campaign

Artist’s depiction of the NASA Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) locating and assessing the concentration of ice and other resources near the Moon’s South Pole. Credits: NASA / Daniel Rutter

NASA and space settlement advocates are justifiably excited about resources on the Moon, especially water ice known to be present in permanently shadowed regions (PSR) at the lunar poles, because of it’s potential as a source of oxygen and fuel that could be sourced in situ saving the costs of transporting these valuable commodities from Earth.  But how much ice is actually available, accessible and can be processed into useable commodities?  In other words, in terms defined by the U.S. Geological survey, what are the proven reserves?  A reserve is a subset of a resource that can be economically and legally extracted. 

By way of background, under NASA’s Moon to Mars (M2M) Architecture where the agency is defining a roadmap for return to the Moon and then on to the Red Planet, an Architecture Definition Document (ADD) with the aim of creating an interoperable global lunar utilization infrastructure was released last year.  The goals articulated in the document are to enable the U.S. industry and international partners to maintain continuous robotic and human presence on the lunar surface for a robust lunar economy without NASA as the sole user, while accomplishing science objectives and testing technology that will be needed for operations on Mars. 

Of the nine Lunar Infrastructure (LI) goals in the ADD, LI-7 addresses the need to demonstrate in situ resource utilization (ISRU) through delivery of an experiment to the lunar South Pole, the objective of which would be demonstrating industrial scale ISRU capabilities in support of a continuous human lunar presence and a robust lunar economy.  LI-8 aims to demonstrate a) the capability to transfer propellant from one spacecraft to another in space; b) the capability to store propellant for extended durations in space and c) the capability to store propellant on the lunar surface for extended durations – defining the objective to validate technologies supporting cislunar orbital/surface depots, construction and manufacturing maximizing the use of in-situ resources, and support systems needed for continuous human/robotic presence.

To accomplish these goals NASA initiated a series of Lunar Surface Science Workshops starting in 2020.  The results of workshops 17 and 18  held in 2022 were summarized last January in a paper by Neal et al. in Acta Astronautica and discussed recently at a Future In-Space Operations (FISO) Telecon on 2/14/2024 in a presentation by Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC) members Karl Hibbitts, Michael Nord, Jodi Berdis and Michael Miller.  These efforts identified a conundrum: there is not enough data to establish how much proven reserves of lunar water ice are available to inform economically viable plans for ISRU on the Moon.  Thus, a resource prospecting campaign is needed to address this problem.  International cooperation on such an initiative, perhaps in the context of the Artemis Accords, makes sense to share costs while enabling the signatories of the Accords (39 as of this post) to realize economic benefits from commerce in a developing cislunar economy.

The campaign concept proposes a 3-tiered approach. First, confirming ice is present in the PSRs near potential Artemis landing sites – this could be done by low altitude orbital reconnaissance using neutron spectroscopy, radar and other techniques. Next, surface rovers already on the drawing board such as the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER), would be deployed to locate specific reserves.

Finally, detailed characterization of the reserve using rovers leveraging capabilities learned from VIPER and optimized for reconnaissance in the PSRs. Some technological improvements would be needed in this final phase to address power and long duration roving under the expected extreme conditions. Nuclear power sources and wireless power beaming from solar arrays on the crater rims, both requiring further development, could solve these challenges. This technology will be directly transferrable to equipment needed for excavation, which will face the same power and reliability hurdles in the ultra cold darkness of the PSRs.

As mentioned in the FISO presentation and pointed out by Kevin Cannon in a previous post by SSP, how water ice is distributed in lunar regolith “endmembers” is a big unknown and could be quite varied.  Characterization during this last phase is paramount before equipment can be designed and optimized for economic extraction.

Artist’s impression of different types of lunar water ice / regolith endmembers, characterization of which will be required before extraction methods and equipment can be validated. Credits: Lena Jakaite / strike-dip.com / Colorado School of Mines

The authors of the paper acknowledge that coordinating an international effort will be difficult but involving all stakeholders will foster cooperation and shape positive legal policy within the framework of the Artemis Accords to comply with the Outer Space Treaty.  

From the conclusion of the paper:

“If the reserve potential is proven, the benefits to society on Earth would be immense, initially realized through job growth in new space industries, but new technologies developed for sending humans offworld and commodities made from lunar resources could have untold important benefits for society back here.”

George Sowers, whose research was referenced in the paper and covered by SSP, believes that “Water truly is the oil of space” that will kickstart a cislunar economy.  Once reserves of lunar water ice are proven to exist through a prospecting campaign and infrastructure is placed to enable economically feasible mining and processing for use as rocket fuel and oxygen for life support systems, technology improvements and automation will reduce costs.    If it can be made competitive with supply chains from Earth lunar water will be the liquid gold that opens the high frontier.

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The role of space ethics on the high frontier

Artist concept of a cutaway view of the Stanford Torus free space settlement. Credits: Rick Guidice / NASA

Can humanity explore and develop space responsibly by learning from some of the mistakes made throughout history while settling new lands? In an article called “To Boldly Go (Responsibly)” on LinkedIn, CEO of Trans Astronautica Corporation Joel Sercel provides a vision for how we should conscientiously manage space settlement in a manner that respects human rights and the rule of law, but also maintains stewardship of the space environment.

“Through space settlement, we have a chance to show that humanity has learned from history and is evolving morally and culturally”

Sercel warns of the “Elysium effect”. In the words of Rick Tumlinson, who coined the term in an article on Space.com, “…as entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson spend billions to support a human breakout into space, there is a backlash building that holds these projects as icons of extravagance.” Ironically, these New Space pioneers actually have the opposite goals of lowering the cost of access to space for average citizens and preserving the Earth’s environment by moving “dirty” industries outside it’s biosphere.

Public space agencies and private space companies can help open the high frontier responsibility through cooperation on development of common standards and international agreements in accordance with the Outer Space Treaty. Sercel believes that an urgent need in this area would be establishment of salvage rights for defunct satellites and dormant orbital debris like spent upper stages which under the OST are the responsibility of the nation that launched the payloads.

“That’s a legal impediment for companies developing satellites to clean up orbital debris and firms eager to recycle abandoned antennas and rocket bodies.”

Some work in the area of orbital debris mitigation has already been started by the Space Safety Coalition, an ad hoc coalition of companies, organizations, and other government and industry stakeholders, through establishment of best practices and standardization for space operations. And just last month the Orbital Sustainability Act of 2022 was introduced in the U.S. Senate that will “require the development of uniform orbital debris standard practices in order to support a safe and sustainable orbital environment.”

Good progress on interagency cooperation in space has also been made with the creation of the Artemis Accords, Principles for a Safe, Peaceful, and Prosperous Future. Signed by seven nations thus far, the agreement provides a legal framework in compliance with the OST for humans returning to the Moon and establishing commercial mining rights.

Sercel thinks that before establishing a permanent human presence on Mars we should first thoroughly explore the planet robotically for signs of life to ensure that we do not disrupt any indigenous organisms if a biosphere is found to be present there.

Another example of space ethics, discussed on SSP in previous posts, is determination of the gravity prescription, especially the human gestation component. The answer to this critical factor may drive the decision on where to establish permanent long term settlements so colonists can raise families. It may turn out that having children in less than 1G may not be biologically possible and therefor, for ethical reasons, may change the long term strategy for human expansion in the solar system favoring free space settlements with Earth normal artificial gravity over surface settlements. Sercel believes that determination of the gravity Rx should be a high priority and suggested on The Space Show recently a roadmap of mammalian clinical reproduction studies starting with rodent animal models producing offspring over multiple generations progressing to primates and then, only if these are successful, initiating limited human experiments. Such studies would prevent ethical issues that may arise from birth defects or health problems during pregnancy because we don’t know how lower gravity would effect embryos during gestation.

Dylan Taylor of Voyager Space Holdings has advocated for a sustainable approach to space commercial activities to ensure “…that all humanity can continue to use outer space for peaceful purposes and socioeconomic benefit now and in the long term. This will require international cooperation, discussion, and agreements designed to ensure that outer space is safe, secure and peaceful.”

Sercel is calling for the National Space Council “…to coordinate private organizations to include think tanks, advocacy groups, and the science community to work together to define the field of space ethics…to guide the development of laws and regulations that will ensure the rapid and peaceful exploration, development and settlement of space.”