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Sierra Space and payload integrator Tec-Masters to facilitate test of Honda’s Circulative Renewable Energy System on the ISS

Artist impression of Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser space plane Tenacity en route to the ISS. Credits: Sierra Space.

Honda is teaming up with Sierra Space and Tec-Masters to test their Circulative Renewable Energy System (CRES) designed to use water and sunlight to produce oxygen, hydrogen, and electricity for use on the Moon. The company’s research suggests that CRES could power a lunar colony, providing life support and fuel while recycling water in a closed-loop system from water sourced in situ.

Honda’s CRES is designed to support lunar activities by generating essential resources using sunlight and water extracted from lunar regolith or ice deposits, especially at the Moon’s polar regions. The system employs a high differential pressure water electrolysis process, which breaks down water into high-pressure hydrogen and oxygen. In a lunar colony, oxygen would be used for breathable air as well as stored in fuel cells to produce electricity, while the water byproduct is recycled back into the system, creating a closed-loop cycle. CRES is efficient, lightweight, and low-maintenance, ideal for settlements established in the harsh lunar environment, including extreme temperature fluctuations and low gravity. The system’s ability to operate under these conditions makes it suitable, potentially reducing reliance on Earth resupply and supporting a sustainable lunar presence.

Honda’s CRES is a sophisticated technology developed to support human activities on the Moon by leveraging local resources. It is part of a joint research effort with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), an international partner in NASA’s Artemis program, which seeks to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon.

Circulative renewable energy system Honda is working to develop as part of the infrastructure for humanity’s sustained habitation on the Moon where resources other than sunlight and water are not available. Credits: JAXA / Honda

The core technology of CRES is a high differential pressure water electrolysis system, which electrolyzes water to produce high-pressure hydrogen and oxygen. Its is an evolution of Honda’s Power Creator technology, initially developed for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen stations here on Earth, reflecting Honda’s broader commitment to carbon neutrality and sustainability.

Key technical specifications and advantages include:

  • Size and Weight: The electrolysis stack measures 420 mm tall and 210 mm wide, with the overall system at 980 mm tall, making it compact and lightweight, suitable for space transport where costs are approximately $700,000 per kilogram (delivered to the lunar surface).
  • Pressure Capability: It can store hydrogen at pressures up to 70 MPa, about 700 times Earth’s atmospheric pressure, enhancing storage efficiency.
  • Low Maintenance: The system requires no mechanical compressor, reducing complexity and maintenance needs in space.
  • Adaptability to Lunar Conditions: Engineered to withstand the Moon’s extreme environment, including temperature variations from 110°C during the day to -170°C at night, 1/6th Earth gravity, and high radiation levels.

Sierra Space, Honda, and Tec-Masters have formed a strategic partnership to test Honda’s high-differential pressure water electrolysis system on the International Space Station (ISS) facilitated be Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane. Dream Chaser has a cargo capacity of over 6 tons and can return payloads to Earth at under 1.5g’s on commercial runways, enhancing its flexibility for space missions. The first Dream Chaser, named Tenacity, is currently undergoing final testing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center for its ISS mission under NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services-2 (CRS-2) contract. The launch is currently planned for no earlier than the third quarter of this year, however, this first payload will not include Honda’s water electrolysis system. It has not been disclosed which upcoming Dream Chaser mission will transport the system to the ISS.

This testing aims to validate the system’s performance in space prior to operations on the Moon. Sierra Space will manage the mission, working with the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) and NASA, while Tec-Masters will handle payload integration, leveraging their extensive ISS experience. Tec-Masters brings decades of experience in ISS payload integration and certification, ensuring that the electrolysis system will meet stringent spaceflight requirements. The primary objectives of the testing will be to validate that the system can produce oxygen, hydrogen, and electricity reliably in space, crucial for future lunar base operations. This collaboration marks a significant step toward realizing Honda’s vision of sustainable energy systems for space exploration and could reduce the cost and complexity of lunar colonization.

In a Lunar Colony, CRES has the potential to enable a self-sustaining human presence on the Moon, given its ability for in situ resource utilization. Key applications include:

Oxygen Production for Life Support: CRES’s water electrolysis process produces oxygen as a primary output, which can be directly used to sustain colonists, reducing the need for oxygen transport from Earth.

Hydrogen as a Fuel Source: CRES can generate hydrogen as a versatile fuel for various lunar activities, including powering rovers, construction equipment, or spacecraft for cis-lunar operations or return missions to Earth. It can also be used in fuel cells to generate additional electricity, enhancing energy flexibility.

Electricity Generation: The electricity produced by CRES through fuel cells can power the colony’s operations, such as lighting, heating, life support systems, communication equipment, and scientific instruments. This is particularly valuable during the lunar night in lower latitudes, when solar panels can’t generate power due to the absence of sunlight for 14 days.

Closed-Loop Water Recycling: One of CRES’s most significant advantages is its closed-loop design, where water is continuously recycled. Water produced as a byproduct of fuel cell operation is returned to the electrolysis system, minimizing water loss. This is crucial for a lunar colony, where water is a scarce and expensive resource to transport from Earth.

The adoption of CRES in a lunar colony could significantly reduce the need for resupply missions from Earth, lowering costs and logistical complexity. By producing essential life support resources, fuel and electricity on-site, CRES could enable a sustainable lunar economy, supporting long-term habitation which could become a hub for further space exploration, such as missions to Mars.

However, challenges remain, particularly around sourcing water for the system. The quantity and accessibility of lunar water are still being researched, with estimates suggesting ice deposits may be small and dispersed, requiring advanced extraction technologies. Water on the Moon is primarily found in the form of ice deposited in permanently shadowed craters by comets and asteroids over billions of years, especially at the lunar poles, with additional water molecules embedded in lunar soil and rocks due to impingement of the solar wind. Recent research confirms that in addition to water ice in the polar regions, hydration has been found in lower latitude sunlit areas, suggesting a variety of viable sources for CRES. Extraction methods could involve heating lunar regolith to release water or mining ice deposits, though the scale and efficiency of these processes remain areas of active study. The energy required for water extraction and the system’s scalability for a large colony also need further investigation.

Honda’s CRES represents a transformative technology for lunar colonization, offering a pathway to self-sufficiency by leveraging local resources. Its testing on the ISS and eventual integration with lunar water harvesting operations position it as a cornerstone for future space settlement, though ongoing research into water availability and system scalability will be critical for its success.

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Lunar Outpost Eagle to fly on Starship – blazing a trail for lunar highways

Artist rendering of the Lunar Outpost Eagle Lunar Terrain Vehicle. Credit: Lunar Outpost

Space News recently reported that Colorado-based Lunar Outpost has signed an agreement with SpaceX to use Starship to deliver their lunar rover, known as the Lunar Outpost Eagle, to the Moon. Announced November 21, the contract supports the Artemis program with surface mobility and infrastructure services. The agreement positions Starship as the delivery vehicle for Lunar Outpost’s Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV), which is a contender for NASA’s Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services (LTVS) program. The exact terms of the contract, including the launch schedule, were not disclosed in the announcements. Lunar Outpost has assembled a contractor team under the banner “Lunar Dawn” to execute the company’s LTV solution. The collaborative development program includes in industry leaders Leidos, MDA Space, Goodyear, and General Motors.

Rover Design Features

  • Mobility and Functionality: The Lunar Outpost Eagle is designed to support both crewed and autonomous navigation on the lunar surface. It’s built to operate even during the harsh lunar night, exhibiting resilience against the Moon’s extreme temperature changes.
  • Collaborative Development: The Lunar Dawn team brings expertise in spacecraft design, robotics, automotive technology, and tire manufacturing, ensuring a robust and versatile design.
  • Size and Capacity: Described as truck-sized, the Eagle LTV is intended to be a valuable vehicle for lunar operations, capable of transporting heavy cargo to support NASA’s Artemis astronauts and commercial activities.
  • Testing and Refinement: The design has undergone human factors testing at NASA’s Johnson Space Center, with feedback from astronauts being used to refine the vehicle’s usability and functionality.

Future Plans

  • NASA’s LTV Program: Lunar Outpost is one of three companies selected by NASA for the LTV program to develop rovers to support future Artemis missions. The other two companies are Intuitive Machines and Venturi Astrolab. After a preliminary design review (PDR), NASA will select at least one company for further development and demonstration, with the goal of having a rover operational in time for Artemis 5, currently scheduled for 2030.
  • Commercial Operations: Beyond NASA’s usage, the rovers will be available for commercial operations when not in use by the agency, aiming to support a sustainable lunar economy. This includes plans for infrastructure development and scientific exploration.
  • Series A Funding: Lunar Outpost has recently secured a Series A funding round to accelerate the development of the Lunar Outpost Eagle, ensuring that the rover project moves forward regardless of the outcome of NASA’s selection process.
  • Long-Term Vision: The company’s vision extends to enabling a sustainable human presence in space, with plans to leverage robotics and planetary mobility for development of infrastructure to harness space resources.

This partnership with SpaceX and the development of Eagle under the Lunar Dawn program are pivotal steps in advancing both NASA’s lunar exploration goals and commercial activities on the Moon.

Once delivered to the Moon by Starship, the Eagle rover will drive over harsh regolith terrain which, as discovered by Apollo astronauts when driving the Lunar Roving Vehicle, presents several unique challenges due to the Moon’s distinct environmental conditions. First, lunar dust is highly abrasive and can become electrostatically charged sticking to surfaces and mechanisms resulting in wear and degradation of wheels, bearings, and sensors potentially leading to equipment failure. The Moon’s low gravity can make traction difficult. Rovers might slip or skid becoming less stable when accelerating, braking or turning. Terrain variability and nonuniformity on loose powdery dust or sharp, rocky outcrops could cause stability issues.

These problems can be solved by creating roads with robust, smooth surfaces for safe and reliable mobility on the Moon. Initially, the regolith could be leveled by robots with rollers to compact the regolith to make it less likely to be kicked up by rover wheels. Eventually, technology being developed by companies like Ethos Space for infrastructure on the Moon using their robotic system for melting regolith in place for fabricating lunar landing pads, could be used to build smooth, stable roads.

A network of roads could be constructed to transport water and other resources harvested at the poles to where it would be needed in settlements around the Moon extending from high latitudes down to the equatorial regions. As envisioned by the Space Development Network, this system of roads could be created to provide access to a variety of areas to mine valuable resources as well as thoroughfares to popular exploration and tourism sites. The development of the highway system could start at the poles with telerobots, then eventually be expanded to include equatorial areas and would be fabricated autonomously prior to the arrival of large numbers of settlers.

Longer term, a more efficient method of transportation on the Moon could be magnetic levitation (maglev) trains. Research into this technology has already been proposed by NASA which is actively developing a project named “Flexible Levitation on a Track” (FLOAT), which aims to create a maglev railway system on the lunar surface. This system would use magnetic robots levitating over a flexible film track to transport materials, with the potential to move up to 100 tons of material per day. The FLOAT project has advanced to phase two of NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program.

Artist’s rendering of the Flexible Levitation on a Track (FLOAT) maglev lunar railway system to transport materials on the Moon. Credit: Ethan Schaler / Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Ethos Space has ambitious plans for the Moon and beyond

Conceptual illustration of a SpaceX Starship on a lunar landing pad made from in situ materials by Ethos Space, which plans to use lunar resources for space development. Credits: Starship image: SpaceX; Lunar landing pad and landscape: Grok 2

Kevin Cannon, one of our favorite researchers on ISRU here on SSP, recently appeared on The Space Show to discuss his new position as Senior Lunar Geologist for Ethos Space, a Los Angeles based lunar infrastructure startup that just emerged from stealth last June. Near term (by 2028), the company plans to support the Artemis program by attempting to robotically building landing pads for Starship using lunar regolith, an application SSP covered last year in a ground breaking trade study. Ethos also hopes to extract oxygen from lunar regolith which makes up 80% of rocket propellant and could be a major market segment in a cislunar economy. Incidentally, a few years ago Cannon looked into where on the Moon is the best place to source oxygen.

Long term (20 – 30 years from now) Ethos hopes to use lunar materials to manufacture a sunshade commissioned by world governments that would be placed at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrange point to combat global warming by blocking 2% of sunlight that reaches our planet. Ethos Space CEO, Ross Centers, is founder of the nonprofit Planetary Sunshade Foundation which issued a report on the state of space based radiation modification about a year ago.

Conceptual illustration of planetary sunshade fabricated from materials sourced on the Moon. Credits: Ethos Space
Diagram depicting the proposed location for a sunshade located at the L1 Sun-Earth Lagrange point (not to scale). Credits: Planetary Sunshade Foundation
Ray trace showing that the more acute umbra shadow of a sunshade would not reach Earth while the diffuse penumbra is what would cover our planet (not to scale). Credits: Planetary Sunshade Foundation

Cannon believes that a sunshade is a better geoengineering solution to cool the climate then cloud seeding with sulfur dioxide aerosols as at least one startup company, Make Sunsets, is proposing. Cannon believes this approach, which he says amounts to “using pollution to fight pollution”, will not be very popular with the general public. Make Sunsets counters this argument with an analysis available on their website showing that sulfur dioxide released high in the stratosphere is highly effective in counteracting the warming effect of carbon dioxide while dispersing to negligible levels globally reducing the chance of producing acid rain, the primary concern of sulfur releases in the lower atmosphere. In fact, a paper in Geophysical Research Letters published last August documents evidence that recent regulations on cargo ship emissions limiting sulfur pollutants may have actually contributed to global warming. In 2020 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) instituted new regulations reducing the maximum allowed sulfur emission per kg of fuel in ships by 80%. As a result, artificial clouds created by ship emissions decreased causing northern hemisphere surface temperatures to rise. This example reinforces the need to study geoengineering projects carefully to prevent unforeseen consequences. With respect to the sunshade, Cannon anticipates that international coordination will definitely be required as some countries may have farm land that would actually benefit from anticipated warming so may not want these regions shaded.

Back to the Moon: On The Space Show podcast Cannon mentioned that Ethos will be partnering with Astrolab, a Hawthorne, California based company which has already been awarded a NASA contract to develop a Lunar Terrain Vehicle for the Artemis program. Astrolab’s current concept, dubbed FLEX, is designed to carry two suited astronauts, has a robotic arm for science excavations, and can survive the extreme temperatures at the Lunar South Pole. The rover can be teleoperated remotely from Earth or driven by suited astronauts. The Ethos robotic system for fabricating lunar landing pads would be towed behind this rover while melting the regolith in place forming molten stripes over multiple passes that cool into igneous rock that would be very robust. The mechanism for how the regolith will be melted was not disclosed but if they are guided by the trade study mentioned above, microwave sintering makes the most sense.

Image of Astrolab’s FLEX rover which may tow the Ethos Space robotic system for melting lunar regolith to fabricate landing pads on the Moon. Credits: Astolab

In a post a few years ago on his blog Planetary Intelligence, Cannon makes the case that mining Luna for platinum group metals (PGM) would be more economically feasible than from near-Earth objects (NEO) because of transit times and operational difficulties due the typical NEO being an “…irregular shaped rubble pile–or basically a space sandcastle of loose dust and boulders–held weakly together by cohesion and microgravity, and spinning rapidly.” In addition, terrestrial ore grades are higher than in NEOs potentially making the economics challenging to compete with mines on Earth. The CEO of asteroid mining company Astroforge, Matt Gialich, begs to differ. He thinks there is a business case for mining NEOs and has venture capital backers that agree. Cannon actually collaborated with Gialich on a paper making the case for mining PGMs from main belt asteroids which SSP covered last year. However, the distances involved make near term profits difficult, and Astroforge is now focusing on NEO’s relatively close to Earth. Gailich also appeared on The Space Show this year and addressed the terrestrial ore grade question when I posed it to him, essentially saying that extraction of PGMs from NEOs could be economically competitive with terrestrial mines because they are so deep and have slim profit margins.

Both Ethos and Astroforge will have mission results in the next decade, although they are targeting completely different markets. Hopefully, both will succeed.

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Lunar landing pad trade study

Artist’s impression of a lunar landing pad. Credits: SEArch+

When humanity returns to the Moon and begins to build infrastructure for permanent settlements, propulsive landings will present considerable risk because rocket plumes can accelerate lunar dust particles in the bare regolith to high velocities which could result in considerable damage to nearby structures. Obviously, nothing can be done about the first spacecraft that will return to the moon later this decade unless they use their own rocket plume to create a landing pad like the concept proposed in a NIAC Grant by Masten Space Systems (now part of Astrobotic).

Flight Alumina Spray Technique (FAST) instant landing pad deployment during lunar landing. Source: Matthew Kuhns, Masten Space Systems Inc (now Astrobotic)

Therefore, before significant operations can begin on the Moon that require lots of rockets, a high priority will be construction of landing pads to prevent sandblasting by rocket plume ejecta of planned structures such as habitats, science experiments and other equipment. Several methods are currently being studied. Some require high energy consumption. Others could take a long time to implement. Still others are technologically immature. Which technique makes the most economic sense? Phil Metzger and Greg Autry examine options for the best approach to this urgent need in a November 2022 paper in New Space.

A lunar landing pad should have an inner and outer zone. The inner zone will have to withstand the intense heat of a rocket plume during decent and ascent. The outer zone can be less robust as the expanding gases will cool rapidly and decrease in pressure but will still be expanding rapidly, so erosion will have to be mitigated over a wider area.

Landing pad layout showing inner and outer zone measurements proposed in this study (Figure 1 in paper). Credits: Philip Metzger and Greg Autry / New Space – Lunar surface image credit: NASA.

Several processes of fabricating landing pads were examined by the authors. Sintering of regolith is one such technique, where dust grains are heated and fused by a variety of methods including microwave heating or focused solar energy. SSP has reported on the latter previously, but in this study it was noted that that technology needs further development work. Fabricating pavers by baking in ovens in situ was also examined in a addition to infusion of a polymer into the regolith to promote particle adhesion.

An economic model was developed to support construction of landing pads for NASA’s Artemis Program based on experimental data and the physics for predicting critical features of construction methods. Factors such as the equipment energy consumption, the mass of microwave generators compared to the power output needed to sinter the soil to specified thickness, and the mass of polymer needed to infuse the regolith to fabricate the pads were included in the model. Other factors were considered including the costs associated with program delays, hardware development, transportation of equipment to the lunar surface, and reliability.

When varying these parameters and comparing different combinations of manufacturing techniques, the trade study optimized the mass of construction equipment to balance the costs of transportation with program delays. The authors found that from a cost perspective, microwave sintering makes the most sense for both the inner and outer regions of the landing pad, at least initially. When transportation costs come down to below a threshold of $110K/kg then a hybrid combination of microwave sintering in the inner zone and polymer infusion of regolith in the outer zone makes the most sense.

Once astronauts land safely and begin EVAs on the lunar surface, they can keep from tracking dust into their habitat by taking an electron beam shower.

Other lunar dust problems and their risks can be mitigated with solutions covered previously on SSP.

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ICON awarded $57 Million by NASA to develop lunar 3D printing technology for lunar surface construction

Conceptual illustration of Olympus, a lunar construction system based on in situ resource utilization. Credits: ICON

In a press release, the Austin based company reports how the Phase III award under NASA’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program will be used to adapt its existing additive manufacturing process for home building on Earth to the Olympus system using lunar regolith for fabrication of structures on the Moon. ICON envisions the system to be integrated into a rover that will be delivered to the Moon via a lander. The rover will then autonomously drive to a target site where the Olympus laser 3D printer will process lunar regolith into useful structures. The system can be used for fabricating roads, landing pads and habitats out of local resources without having to bring building materials from Earth, thereby significantly lowering costs. Once the system is proven on the Moon, perhaps in the later stages of Artemis, the same technology can be applied on Mars as well.

ICON plans to test the system “…via a lunar gravity simulation flight” although no details were revealed on such a mission. Presumably, this would be a parabolic flight in the Earth’s atmosphere. The company would use samples of lunar soil brought back during the Apollo missions and lunar regolith simulant to tune the process variables of their laser 3D printing equipment operating under these conditions. Once optimized, Olympus would be placed on the Moon “…to establish the critical infrastructure necessary for a sustainable lunar economy including, eventually, longer term lunar habitation.”

“The final deliverable of this contract will be humanity’s first construction on another world, and that is going to be a pretty special achievement.”

– Jason Ballard, ICON co-founder and CEO

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Dennis Wingo’s strategy for development of cislunar space and beyond

Image credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University

The Cislunar Science and Technology Subcommittee of the White House Office Science and Technology Policy Office (OSTP) recently issued a Request for Information to inform development of a national science and technology strategy on U.S. activities in cislunar space.

Dennis Wingo provided a response to question #1 of this RFI, namely what research and development should the U.S. government prioritize to help advance a robust, cooperative, and sustainable ecosystem in cislunar space in the next 10 to 50 years?

In a prolog to his response Wingo reminds us that historically, NASA’s mission has focused narrowly on science and technology.  What is needed is a sense of purpose that will capture the imagination and support of the American people.    In today’s world there seems to be more dystopian predictions of the future than positive visions for humanity.  We seem to be dominated by fear of “…doom and gloom scenarios of the climate catastrophe, the degrowth movement, and many of the most negative aspects of our current societal trajectory.”  This fear is manifested by what Wingo defines as a “geocentric” mindset focused primarily within the material limitations of the Earth and its environs.

“The question is, is there an alternative to change this narrative of gloom and doom?”

He recommends that policy makers foster a cognitive shift to a “solarcentric” worldview: the promise of an economic future of abundance through utilization of the virtually limitless resources of the Moon, Asteroids, and of the entire solar system.  An example provided is to harvest the resources of the asteroid Psyche which holds a billion times the minable metal on Earth, and to which NASA had planned on launching an exploratory mission this year but had to delay it due to late delivery of the spacecraft’s flight software and testing equipment.

Artist rendering of NASA’s Psyche Mission spacecraft.  Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Arizona State Univ./Space Systems Loral/Peter Rubin

Back to the RFI, Wingo has four recommendations that will open up the solar system to economic development and address many of the problems that cause the geocentrists despair. 

First, we should make the Artemis moon landings permanent outposts with year long stays as opposed to 6 day “camping trips”. This should be possible with resupply missions by SpaceX as they ramp up Starship launch rates (assuming the launch vehicle and lander are validated in the same timeframe, which seems reasonable). Next, we need power and lots of it – on the order of megawatts.  This should be infrastructure put in place by the government to support commerce on the Moon.  By leveraging existing electrical power standards and production techniques, large scale solar power facilities could be mass produced at low cost on Earth and shipped to the moon before the capability of in situ utilization of lunar resources is established.  Some companies such as TransAstra already have preliminary designs for solar power facilities on the Moon.

Which brings us to ISRU.  The next recommendation is to JUST DO IT.  This technology is fairly straightforward and could be used to split oxygen from metal oxides abundant in lunar regolith to source air and steel.  Pioneer Astronautics is already developing what they call Moon to Mars Oxygen and Steel Technology (MMOST) for just this application.

Conceptual illustration of the Lunar OXygen In-situ Experiment (LOXIE) Production Prototype. Credits: Mark Berggren / Pioneer Astronautics

And lets not forget the wealth of in situ resources that could be unlocked via synthetic geology made possible by Kevin Cannon’s Pinwheel Magma Reactor.

Conceptual depiction of the Pinwheel Magma Reactor on a planetary surface in the foreground and in free space on a tether as shown in the inset. Credits: Kevin Cannon

Of course there is water everywhere in the solar system just waiting to be harvested for fuel and life support in a water-based economy.

Illustration of an ice extraction concept for collection of water on the Moon. Credits: George Sowers / Colorado School of Mines

Wingo’s final recommendation is industrialization of the Moon in preparation for the settlement of Mars followed by the exploration of the vast resources of the Asteroid Belt.  He makes it clear that this is more important than just a goal for NASA, which has historically focused on scientific objectives, and should therefore be a national initiative.

“…for the preservation and extension of our society and to preclude the global fight for our limited resources here.”

With the right vision afforded by this approach and strong leadership leading to its implementation, Wingo lays out a prediction of how the next fifty years could unfold. By 2030 over ten megawatts of power generation could be emplaced on the Moon which would enable propellant production from the pyrolysis of metal oxides and hydrogen production from lunar water.  This capability allows refueling of Starship obviating the need to loft propellent from Earth and thereby lowering the costs of a human landing system to service lunar facilities.  From there the cislunar economy would begin to skyrocket.

The 2040s see a sustainable 25% annual growth in the lunar economy with a burgeoning Aldrin Cycler business to support asteroid mining and over 1000 people living on the Moon.

By the 2050s, fusion reactors provide power and propulsion while the first Ceres settlement has been established providing minerals to support the Martian colonies.

“The sky is no longer the limit”

By sowing these first seeds of infrastructure a vibrant cislunar economy will enable sustainable settlement across the solar system. A solarcentric development mythology may be just what is needed to become a spacefaring civilization.

Artist’s concept of an O’Neill space colony. Credits: Rachel Silverman / Blue Origin

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Leveraging Starship for lunar habitats

Conceptual overview of the lunar Rosas Base derived from a SpaceX Starship tipped on its side and covered with regolith. Credits: International Space University, Space Studies Program 2021 Team*. The name of the base is in memory of Oscar Federico Rosas Castillo

SSP has examined some of the implications of SpaceX’s Starship achieving orbit, such as an imminent tipping point in U.S. human spaceflight and launch policy. We’ve also discussed how if its successful, Starship will bring about a paradigm shift in the settlement of Mars and how the spacecraft could be used to determine the gravity prescription.

During Elon Musk’s recent Starship update from Boco Chica, Texas he said that he was “highly confident” that Starship would reach orbit this year. He also predicted that the cost of placing 150 tons in LEO could eventually come down to as low as $10 million per launch, and that “…there are a lot of additional customers that will want to use Starship. I don’t want to steel their thunder. They’re going to want to make their own announcements. This will get a lot of use, a lot of attention….”

“Once we make this work, its an utterly profound breakthrough in access to orbit….the use cases will be hard to imagine.” – Elon Musk

One such potential use case was worked out in detail by a team* of students last year during the International Space University’s (ISU) Space Studies Program 2021 held in Strasbourg, France. Called Solutions for Construction of a Lunar Base, the project used the version of Starship currently under development by SpaceX for the Human Landing System component of NASA’s Artemis Program as the basis for a habitat on the Moon. The concept was also described in a paper at the 72nd International Astronautical Congress in Dubai last October. The mission of the project was:

“To develop a roadmap for the construction of a sustainable, habitable, and permanent lunar base. This will address regulatory and policy frameworks, confront technological and anthropological challenges and empower scientific and commercial lunar activities for the common interest of all humankind.”

The team did an impressive job working out solutions to some of the most challenging issues facing humans living in the harsh lunar environment like radiation, micrometeorites, and hazardous lunar dust. They also dealt with human factors, physiological and medical problems anticipated under these conditions. Finally, the legal aspects as well as a rigorous financial analysis was conducted to support a business plan for the base in the context of a sustainable cislunar economy. The report is lengthy and challenging to summarize but here are some of the highlights.

A decommissioned Starship forms the primary core component of the outpost having its fuel tanks converted to living space of considerable volume. This has precedent in the U.S. space program when NASA modified an S-IVB stage of a Saturn V to create Skylab. The team envisions extensive use of a MOdular RObotic Construction Autonomous System (MOROCAS) outfitted with specific tools to perform a variety of activities autonomously which would reduce the need for extravehicular activities (EVA) thereby minimizing risks to crew. The MOROCAS would be utilized to tip the Starship on its side, pile regolith over the station for radiation protection and a range of other useful functions.

Medical emergencies were considered for accidents anticipated for construction activities in the high risk lunar environment. The types of injuries that could be expected were assessed to inform plans for needed medical equipment and facilities for diagnosis and treatment.

As discussed by SSP in a previous post, hazards from lunar regolith must be mitigated in for any activities on the moon. The solutions proposed included limiting dust inhalation through monitoring and smart scheduling EVAs, the use of dust management systems utilizing electrostatic removal mechanisms and intelligent design of equipment. In addition, landing sites and travel routes would be prepared either through sintering of regolith or compaction to prevent damage to structures by rocket plumes.

Funding of the Rosas Base was envisioned to be implemented via a public/private partnership administered by an international authority called the Rosas Lunar Authority (RLA). The RLA management would be structured as an efficient interface between participating governments while being capable of responding to policy and legal challenges. It would rely on public financing initially but eventually shift to private financing supplemented by rental of the base to stakeholders and interested parties.

Finally the team examined the value proposition driving establishment of the base. Sociocultural benefits, scientific advancements and technology transfer would be the primary driving factors. Initial market opportunities would be targeted at the scientific community in the form of data and lunar samples. Follow-on commercial activities that would attract investors could include launch services to orbit, cislunar spacecraft services, propellent markets in lunar orbit and LEO, communications networks in cislunar space and commercial activities on the surface such as supplies of transportation and mining equipment, habitats, and ISRU facilities.

The surface of the Moon provides exciting opportunities for scientific experimentation, medical research, and commerce in the cislunar economy about to unfold in the next decade. The unique capabilities of Starship and the solutions proposed in this report support a sustainable business model for a permanent outpost like the Rosa Base on the Moon.

Conceptual illustration of an emerging cisluar economy. Credits: International Space University, Space Studies Program 2021 Team*

An executive summary of the project is also available.

__________

* ISU Space Studies Program 2021 participants:

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Are we close to a tipping point for human spaceflight?

Artist depiction of Starship on the lunar surface returning astronauts to the Moon as part of NASA’s Artemis Program. Credits: SpaceX

What will be the impact on the direction of U.S. space policy should SpaceX successfully demonstrate an orbital flight of Starship? Doug Plata, President and Founder of the Space Development Network believes that when Starship achieves orbit, policy makers should “…place Starship at the center of the country’s human spaceflight program…”. In an article in The Space Review he makes the case that if successful in its efforts, SpaceX may be edging us closer to a tipping point on deciding which path to take for the country’s human rated launch vehicle: Space Launch System (SLS) or Starship? This question is accentuated by recent news reports of yet another delay in the Artemis 1 uncrewed test flight of SLS which Ars Technica reports may not launch until the summer of 2022…assuming everything goes perfectly. Meanwhile, SpaceX continues its development of Starship at a breakneck pace, while simultaneously building the manufacturing infrastructure to “…crank them out by the hundreds”, says Plata. With the delay of Artemis 1, it is possible that SpaceX will demonstrate the first orbital launch of Starship before NASA’s first launch of SLS.

NASA has already selected SpaceX to return astronauts to the Moon via Starship as the Human Landing System for the Artemis program, although work has stalled on the contract due to Blue Origin’s lawsuit. But with a reusable Starship at a fraction of the cost, comparable heavy lift capability and a much higher flight rate, how long can SLS last? A case could be made for keeping SLS until SpaceX’s Super Heavy booster is human rated and Starship can be reliably shown to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere and land safely. But this won’t be long given Elon Musk’s aggressive timelines. Will it continue to make sense to launch astronauts on SLS/Orion, transfer them to Starship in lunar orbit and descend to the surface of the Moon when the the whole mission could be accomplished without SLS at a fraction of the cost?

“At some point, it will be obvious that SLS is an unnecessarily expensive alternative to Starship”

With Starship’s anticipated payload capabilities of delivery of 100s of tons and large crews to the lunar surface, and recent advances in inflatable technology, a habitat with a footprint of about 21,000 sq. ft. is within reach. Plata believes that the billions of dollars slated for SLS would be better spent contracting with SpaceX for delivery of inflatables and their supporting infrastructure to the lunar surface. This could lead to a large international lunar base which may eventually become a permanent settlement.

Instabase
Conceptual illustration of InstaBase – a fully inflatable lunar base capable of supporting an initial crew of eight. Credits: The Space Development Network via The Space Review

“But there is an important historic significance to Starship as well…the real historic prize to be seized is the establishment of humanity’s first foothold off Earth.”

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NASA’s measurement plan for a lunar water reserve

Diagram depicting NASA’s Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS). Credits: NASA

NASA just published a Technical Memorandum on its Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS). The TM describes the establishment of a measurement plan for identification and characterization of a water reserve on the Moon. This program would support the Artemis program to achieve a sustainable lunar presence by 2028.

Three primary data inputs feed information into the system. First, predictive modeling provides a ‘water favorability’ index to map out locations on the Moon with water ice potential. This algorithm is fed data by orbital measurements providing information on a regional scale. It is critical that this orbital data is interpreted properly for water-favorable sites on the Moon. To ensure accuracy, lunar landers will take surface measurements in a series of three phases: mobile reconnaissance for validation of the predictive model, focused exploratory missions to verify water’s presence and final reserve mapping to inform an ISRU ice mining plant by 2028.

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AIAA ASCENDxCo-Lab workshop identifies technology gaps for economically viable lunar settlements

Artist’s impression of a lunar settlement. Credit: ESA/Foster + Partners via universetoday.com

The 2020 virtual event sponsored by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics held in August brought together 200 space industry leaders from all over the world to discuss and respond to NASA’s ARTEMIS Plan. The event was summarized in a proceedings report that captured the group’s consensus on the technological and economic conditions needed for a sustained and economically viable lunar settlement. The attendees discussed the role of national space agencies, governments, and industry in addressing those conditions. The report defined a sustained lunar settlement as meeting the test of continuous survival and operation over time, and an economically viable settlement as one for which the long-term cost of maintenance is sustained by private capital.

When polled on the key technologies needed for a long term permanent presence on the Moon, the group identified the gaps in the chart below as those areas needing higher Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) to enable a permanent lunar settlement.

Technology areas needing further development. Credits: Jessica Todd et al.* / AIAA

The authors* then summarized the economic conditions identified at the workshop conducive to sustained lunar settlements, information needed to close the technology gaps and the roles of government space agencies as well as non-aerospace industries (e.g. healthcare, agriculture, food processing, utilities, mining and construction). _________________________________________________________________________________

* Authors of the ASCEND Ensuring Economically Viable Lunar Settlements Proceedings Report 2020 include:

Jessica Todd, Graduate Research Assistant, Aerospace Engineering in Autonomous Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Research Institute
George Lordos, Ph.D. Candidate, Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Becca Browder, Graduate Research Assistant, Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Benjamin Martell, Graduate Research Assistant, Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cormac O’Neill, Graduate Research Assistant, Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology