Kasper Kubica presents an optimistic business case for space tenants moving in (er, up) to deluxe condominiums orbiting the Earth within 10 years. Initially for the ultra rich, the price tag is comparable to high end real estate currently on the market. Of course the devil is in the details, so lets dive in.
In a post on Medium, Kubica uses the rotating habitat Kalpana as an illustrative example of his “Spacelife Direct” approach for an orbital settlement spinning to create 1G of artificial gravity and hosting north of 400 condominiums in LEO. Such a facility would be shielded from radiation by Earth’s magnetosphere if it were located in low equatorial orbit and therefore could be constructed with less shielding. This results in a significant reduction of mass driving costs way down. Running the numbers on this scenario opens up exciting possibilities with the amazing capabilities of Elon Musk’s Starship currently under development by SpaceX.
Using the scaled down Kalpana Two version as discussed in Tom Marotta and Al Globus’ book, The High Frontier, an Easier Way, the cylindrical habitat is sized at just over 100 meters in diameter and the same in length, weighing in at 16, 800 metric tons. Kubica estimates that it would take 140 launches to loft the required mass to LEO. Assuming costs keep coming down as Starship launch cadence increases (a safe bet), at $10M/launch the cost of just the materials to LEO would be $1.4B. Of course there are many more expenses associated with design, development and fabrication, not to mention insurance of such an orbital condo complex. For the sake of argument Kubica triples that figure arriving at a total price tag of $4.2B.
But would there be a market for real estate in LEO? Kubica provides comparable examples of skyscrapers with similar costs and over 200 condominiums recently selling for over $10M in Manhattan.
“The clamor for earthside luxury condos is massive and growing. Orbital condos — representing an exclusive experience far beyond that available to anyone on earth — could generate astronomical demand.”
With the economics of Starship opening up limitless possibilities, Kubica lays out a roadmap over the next 10 years to realize the Spacelife Direct opportunity. First would come financing the venture though a team of visionary entrepreneurs and investors (are you listening Dylan Taylor?). Design and development would come next including the robotic systems that would be required for assembly in space. Laying the groundwork for this infrastructure may be completed soon by Orbital Assembly Corporation which could potentially be leveraged as a Spacelife Direct supplier. To keep labor costs down much of the facility would be fabricated on Earth in launchable modules that would be assembled in orbit. The final stages would activate life support systems and finish out the interiors for the occupants to begin moving in.
So what about the rest of us? As history has shown in the aerospace industry at the beginning of the last century and we see unfolding in the space tourism market today, the rich help pave the way so that mass production and economies of scale will drive down costs eventually making space settlement affordable for the masses.
“We don’t want to live in space because it’s an economic necessity, we want to live in space because we are explorers and adventurers, and space is humanity’s next frontier!”
