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Mass value: metric for space settlement

Image credit: Richard Bizley, bizelyart.com / National Space Society

In a paper published in New Space last March, Peter Hague describes a figure of merit he developed to drive policy decisions to help accelerate space exploration and space settlement. The aim of the paper was to generate a single metric for every potential space mission on a common scale for comparison purposes. This ‘mass value’ is the amount of mass that would need to be placed in low Earth orbit (LEO) to perform the same mission using a baseline method. That method would use only storable propellants and Hohmann transfer orbits – no gravity assists, aerocapture, high energy propellants or ISRU.

This approach puts a price on all the add-ons which expand the mission beyond the baseline. One can then use a single normalized scale to calculate how much mass to LEO you would save by making propellant on Mars for example, or by taking advantage of a certain launch window to get a gravity assist.

A hands-off government entity could subsidize space expenditures at a flat rate per kg of mass value, confident they are promoting space development without having legislators involved in engineering decisions.

Aggregating all the missions by a nation, company, or other entity could be used to calculate an analogue of GDP for a space civilization. While this does not measure everything we care about – scientific merit, human occupation, etc – neither does GDP. It does capture the overall capability to move around the solar system; and as such, is as useful for charting our journey to becoming a Type II civilization on the Kardashev Scale as it is for analyzing individual missions.

Thanks to Peter Hague for the material in this post. We’ve heard a rumor that there may be a book forthcoming on the subject. Looking forward to it!

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The current state of the U.S. space industrial base

Credits: USSF-DIU-AFRL

The U.S. Space Force, Air Force Research Laboratory and the Defense Innovation Unit just completed a workshop on the state of the U.S. space industry. The virtual event, hosted by New Space New Mexico, brought together more than 120 representatives across the federal government, industry, and academia to access the current health of the America’s space industry and to provide recommendations for strengthening that industrial base. The resulting report called “State of the Space Industrial Base 2020” has just been released this month.

The workshop focused on 6 key areas thought to be the locus of future space industry activities:

  • Space policy and finance tools
  • Space information services
  • Space transportation and logistics to, in and from cislunar space and beyond.
  • Human presence in space for exploration, space tourism, space manufacturing and resource extraction
  • Power for space systems to enable the full range of emerging space applications
  • Space manufacturing and resource extraction

Recommendations included:

  1. Industry should aggressively pursue partnerships with the US government to develop and operate joint commercial, civil and defense space capabilities. These partnerships should jointly fund developing capabilities that benefit from but are not heavily reliant on US government investment and revenue for their commercial viability.
  2. Entrepreneurs with innovative and potentially dual-use technologies must improve the protection of their intellectual property from unintended foreign assimilation, including protecting their networks from cyber exfiltration attempts, and avoiding exit strategies that transfer intellectual property to foreign control hostile to US interests.
  3. Businesses should engage across the US educational system to guide and develop the future STEM workforce to fuel the future space economy, to include funding for undergraduate scholarships/loans for STEM students, internships and providing space professionals to support instruction in space subjects.
  4. Industry should improve ties and partnerships with domestic and allied parts, subcomponent and subsystem manufacturers to strengthen trust and resilience in space supply chains.
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Going up? Space elevators getting ready for prime time

Artist’s impression of a space elevator. Credits: Steve Bowers / orionsarm.com

The International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC) has just published a position paper on the technology readiness of this alternative to launch vehicles subject to the constraints of the rocket equation. Recent advances in material science of single crystal graphene and other alternatives show potential for fabrication of tethers long enough and with the required strength to enable space elevators by the late 2030s. The authors present a case that the demand for launching enough mass to support ESA’s Moon Village, space based solar power and Elon Musk’s vision for Mars colonies far exceeds projected conventional rocket capabilities. Space elevators could fill this need while being better for the environment.

Diagram of a space elevator system. Credits: ISEC
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Paragon selected by NASA to develop lunar water collection and purification system

Image Credit: NASA’s Goddard Spaceflight Center

Paragon Space Development Corporation, a subcontractor for Dynetics which is one of the three companies NASA has selected to begin work on designs for human lunar landers, was just awarded a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I grant to develop its ISRU Collector of Ice in a Cold Lunar Environment or ICICLE. The system will use a cold trap for collecting and purifying water from ice mining the permanently shadowed regions of the lunar poles. The purification and collection of lunar water is a critical step in generating in-situ propellant, breathable oxygen, and potable water for space settlements and the cislunar economy.

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The logistics of dining off Earth

Artist concept of dining in space. Credits: Disney/Eater

In a recent Twitter thread Kevin Cannon shares his thoughts on the logistics of feeding an expanding population as humans settle other worlds. His “food quality” model compares different food preparation venues in an effort to highlight the challenges of feeding folks in in remote locations such as space settlements (and no, there likely won’t be food trucks in space).

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Rough index of “food quality”. Credits: Kevin Cannon / Twitter

The obvious goal is sustainable, high frequency food replenishment utilizing in situ resource utilization (ISRU). Cannon recently published a paper in which he modeled the calorie needs and land requirements for a martian settlement that reaches a population of one million people becoming self-sufficient within a hundred years. A wealth of research relevant to space settlement can be found at his website kevin.cannon.rocks.

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The approaching emergence of the suborbital space tourism market

SpaceShipTwo Unity Released From VMS Eve for Second Glide Flight in New Mexico. Image © Virgin Galactic 2020

In a paper in New Space, Ken Davidian summarizes his research on the human suborbital spaceflight market and how the data fit within the innovation process ‘‘fireworks’’ model toward eventual industry emergence. He finds that the suborbital tourism market is past the initial emergence stages close to actual commercial operation, which will commence when any company flies a customer in exchange for a purchased fare. To date, Virgin Galactic is the closest to this key milestone. Space tourism may be a key economic driver that will enable eventual space settlement.

Number of reported flight reservations on the Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo vehicle. Credits: Ken Davidian / New Space (2020)
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Beyond Earth Institute publishes policy recommendations to accelerate space settlement

Illustration of an early space settlement. Credits: Beyond Earth Institute, Inc.

The newly formed nonprofit just issued their June 2020 BE Report outlining what steps need to be taken by government and industry in the areas of export controls, best practices and multilateral agreements to foster a future where millions of people will be living and working in space, while in compliance with the Outer Space Treaty.

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Thales Alenia selected as key supplier for Axiom commercial space station

Illustration of Axiom Segment attached at Node 2 Forward port of the ISS. Credit: Axiom Space

Just announced in a press release January 24, the joint venture between Thales and Leonardo will design and develop Axiom’s Micrometeoroid & Debris Protection System and Habitation Module. Axiom was granted access by NASA in January to attach its space station modules to the International Space Station’s Node 2 Forward port in the latter half of 2024. The Axiom Segment may eventually replace the ISS upon decommissioning later this decade. We’re one step closer to the first space settlement in low Earth orbit.

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Space settlement through private enterprise

Artist rendition of Starship exploring Saturn. Image credit SpaceX/Flickr

In an interview by Stuart Clark in BBC Science Focus Magazine, Vice President for North American operations for the International Space University Gary Martin answers questions on how private enterprise is changing space exploration. Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, through their own initiatives and public/private partnerships are opening up the final frontier, paving the way for space settlement.

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Redwire adds Made in Space to its nascent portfolio

3-stage illustration of a Made in Space Archinaut platform assembling a satellite platform much larger than itself. Image credit: Made in Space

Made in Space, who’s mission is to develop state-of-the-art space manufacturing technology to support exploration, national security, and sustainable space settlement, has been acquired by Redwire, a company just formed earlier this month by AE Industrial Partners (AEI) through the acquisition of Deep Space Systems and Adcole Space. Redwire aims to be a leader in mission critical space solutions and high reliability components for the next generation space architecture. With the acquisition of Made in Space and its Archinaut platform designed to manufacture large structures in space, AEI is well positioned for solving the complex challenges of future space missions needed for space settlement.